Question of reliability

Now that the Supreme Court has tacitly refused to rule on the standing of opinion and exit polls, the issue has become sublimely ridiculous....

int(1)

Now that the Supreme Court has tacitly refused to rule on the standing of opinion and exit polls, the issue has become sublimely ridiculous. Both the media and the Election Commission (EC) are convinced that they have carried the day, simply because the umpire has retired. The writ petitioners claim to have upheld the right of the Press to disseminate information though, going by opinion poll predictions in the last election, the quality of that information would appear to be suspect. Chief Election Commissioner M.S. Gill, on the other hand, continues to promise action against media organisations which try to run its blockade, though he has no legal instrument with which to chastise the violators. Interestingly, Gill is effectively breaking his own rules by delaying polls in Jammu and Kashmir. If an exit poll in Delhi can skew results in Madhya Pradesh, the actual declaration of results nationwide will have a very decisive influence in Jammu and Kashmir. If his own stand is inconsistent, he cannot expect themedia to fall in line.

However, that is a question limited to one state. The main issue at stake is whether exit polls can influence outcomes because people have an innate tendency to support the winning side. Or the perceived winning side, because Indian opinion polls are not exactly strong on methodology. Most operate with a sample size that is a minuscule fraction of the electorate, do not present a horizontally or vertically significant cross-section of society, and therefore cannot be depended upon to deliver accurate results. At least one opinion poll in this election has been conducted over the telephone, possibly on the premise that every Indian voter has access to a phone. Worse, the polls boil their figures down to a precise number of seats without indicating a margin of error. Anyone with even a school-level appreciation of the difficult art of statistics will know that such results cannot be a representation of reality. A range or a median figure might be credible, but not an exact prediction.It would take a necromancer to produce that, not a psephologist.

The Election Commission is, perhaps, within its right in seeking a ban on exit polls, but it should realise that it has no Constitutional means of enforcing it. It might, instead, want to look at other means to control pollsters. It has enough access to the media to run a campaign asking the people to take opinion polls with a pinch of salt, for instance. And it might want to stress that democracy is about people making up their own minds. Of course, the electorate knows that already. It has been suggested that opinion and exit polls could have a beneficial effect. By encouraging people to vote for a party with a working majority, they could prevent a hung Parliament. On the other hand, it is heartening to note that the voter has already willed one hung Parliament into existence and is about to try his hand at another — in spite of opinion polls. It would have been better had the Supreme Court ruled on the issue and clearly indicated thewinning side. But the fact that it remains unresolved will not exactly change voting patterns.