Prolonged rains and thunderstorms that had cooled Delhi and northwest India in the last few days are not likely to continue any longer and temperatures are expected to soar again by next week. But the good news is that the forecast for a normal monsoon remains unaffected.This month has received about 120 mm of rains till now which is significantly higher than the last ten year’s average for May of about 42 mm. On Friday, weather scientists said that while isolated rains and thunder showers were still possible in the next one or two days, continuous rains of the sort witnessed over the last week were highly unlikely.A combination of three wind systems that had formed over northwest India was responsible for the rains. These systems were now disintegrating and therefore rainfall would no longer continue, a weather expert pointed out. He said there was no fear of these systems interfering with the southwest monsoon scheduled to arrive on the Kerala coast on its normal date of June 1.“There is still some time for the onset of monsoon in Kerala. The wind systems prevailing over northwest India for the last few days could have affected the monsoon only if they had persisted till the onset of monsoon. But these systems are disintegrating rapidly and the formation of monsoon system is also normal,” he said. “From Sunday, there is a strong likelihood of intense heat in northern and northwestern India which is normal in this season,” he warned.The all-time record for maximum rains in this month was registered in 2002 May, which had seen 129.3 mm of rains in Delhi. That was also a year of failed monsoon. But experts were quick to point out that there was no direct correlation between the two events.“There have been years when we had good rains in May followed by a good monsoon and low rainfall in May followed by bad monsoon,” a senior official of the Indian Meteorological Department said. Data for the last ten years corroborate his view. Last year, which had witnessed a good monsoon, there was 71.5 mm rain in May, much above average. Similarly, in 2004, May got only 37.7 mm of rainfall but it was a year of bad monsoon.With the harvesting of rabi season over, there was no danger of any adverse effect on the crops because of these rains. In fact, it was likely to be beneficial for sugarcane, the only major standing crop, as also vegetables and fruits. However, there was a possibility of some fruits falling before getting ripe because of the thunderstorms. Farmers who might have opted for an early sowing of some crops like cotton also might have to go for re-sowing, a weather scientist said.
