Rajya Sabha: BJP can finally swing an NDA majority

Eight of the 12 nominated Rajya Sabha MPs, including Kuldip Nayar and Shabana Azmi, will step down on August 26, and an equal number will be appointed by the President. There is intense lobbying taking place in the corridors of power for these eight seats.

These eight seats will alter the arithmetic in the upper house and therein lies the significance of the coming presidential nominations. Normally eminent persons in professions make it to the upper house but this time the BJP is expected to zero in on those who it’s confident will stand by it politically.

Of the current four nominated members who aren’t going to retire next month—Fali Nariman, Nanaji Deshmukh, Lata Mangeshkar, and Cho Ramaswamy—three have tended to go with the ruling alliance.

Provided Mayawati and Jayalalithaa continue to back the BJP, the NDA will manage to cross the halfway mark and get the support of 123 members. The current strength is 243 with two vacancies due to the death of members, Korambayil Ahammed Haji from Kerala and Bhagatram Manhar from Chhattisgarh.

Besides, there are three independents on the opposition side, and the ruling party is mostly better placed than the opposition to bring them around, when push comes to shove.

The eight retiring nominated members include Kuldip Nayar, Shabana Azmi, Raja Ramanna, Mrinal Sen, K S Duggal, and Harmohan Singh Yadav. Yadav had joined the Samajwadi Party.

Theoretically speaking, the NDA will now be in a position to sack a state government and get President’s rule ratified by Parliament—something it was unable to push through so far.

It is another matter that the BJP’s allies like the Akali Dal and the TDP have been squeamish about the sack of state governments having been at the receiving end of Centre’s high handedness in the past.

They are not likely to support the BJP in such an endeavour, were the ruling party to attempt such a course of action. In the past, the NDA’s attempts to get rid of the Rashtriya Janata Dal government in Bihar had come a cropper because it did not get the go ahead of Parliament.

‘‘What can we do?’’ shrugged a Congress leader helplessly, saying that the NDA allies would not allow the dismissal of state governments. That is what the Congress is banking on.

The BJP had to get the joint session of Parliament to push through POTA because it did not have a majority in the upper house.

Again, theoretically speaking, the BJP may be able to get a legislation through on Ayodhya, being demanded by the VHP, provided its allies in the NDA agree.

This, however, is not likely to happen. Neither the TDP, nor the Trinamool Congress, nor Mayawati are likely to agree.

Meanwhile, lobbying has intensified for the 8 seats. Among those almost certain to be nominated,say sources, are RBI governor Bimal Jalan and filmstar Hema Malini.

Many journalists have been in the race but the latest thinking in South Block is not to nominate any of them so that those left out are not antagonised.