Redefining the future

the trade routes between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic, adds to its importance. There is reason for us to forge meaningful relations transcending cosmetic aspects of political and diplomatic goodwill.

Its potential is underpinned by a shared colonial experience. Leaving aside the Mahatma Gandhi connection, India was an active supporter of the South African freedom movement led by the African National Congress right till 1990. This can be a cementing factor in relations between the two countries.

But positive relations do not evolve in a vacuum. The political and socio-economic predicaments of the two countries form the matrix from which patterns of bilateral relations will emerge. The Mandela-Gujral interaction in June, aimed at structuring closer long-term ties, is taking place at a time when both South Africa and India find themselves in a challenging situation.

South Africa is engaged in national consolidation. At the same time, it is asserting its regional and international status as a new developing country and a democracy. It is being acknowledged as a regional leader, as evidenced in Mandela’s recent mediatory role in Zaire.

India has to acknowledge South Africa’s importance in this sense also. It is three years since it became a multi-racial, multi-lingual, multi-religious democracy. Mandela and the ruling ANC are engaged in resolving the contradictions and tensions of their plural society. They are tackling divisions between the 33.78 million Africans, 5.27 million Whites, 3.53 million coloured (of mixed racial origin) and 1.2 million Indian.

The Government is also trying to resolve the tensions between the different tribal groups constituting the Black African population. Mandela tried to achieve national integration by forming a multi-party Government of National Unity. He also managed to persuade the Zulu Inkatha Freedom Party to join the Government. His efforts at national reconciliation have not, however, fully succeeded.

The National Party, representing the White population, withdrew from the national coalition, becoming the main opposition party in May 1996. This is of profound significance, introducing centrifugal impulses on racial lines again into South African politics.

While the Inkatha Freedom Party and the ANC have been getting closer since the adoption of the new Constitution in December, the continuance of this political equation remains subject to undercurrents of competition for power and economic returns between the main tribal groups.

South Africa’s economy is in better shape than India’s with a per capita income of $2700 and a satisfactory balance of trade and foreign exchange position. But there are fundamental economic problems.

The growth rate during 1995-96 has come down to 3.5 per cent, inflation continues at 8-9 per cent. Unemployment has reached 43 per cent. South Africa’s external trade and investments in the southern African region have affected the economies of countries like Zambia and Zimbabwe adversely. South Africa has to restore regional economic equilibrium without compromising its own economic stability.

For the last two years, South Africa has been trying to assert itself in a regional and international leadership role. Mandela has assumed the chairmanship of the South African Development Community. South Africa has assumed the chairmanship of UNCTAD this year.

South Africa has also agreed to take on the leadership of the Non-Aligned Movement by hosting its next Summit in 1998. But some South African political circles feel that foreign policy should concentrate on internal consolidation and on structuring bilateral relations responsive to national interests, instead of getting involved in larger multilateral exercises.

It is also felt that foreign policy should concentrate on North America and Western Europe. An interesting motivation of South Africa assuming the leadership of NAM articulated in South African circles is that while the movement in its original form is not relevant, things could be different under South African leadership.

Mandela has introduced some political uncertainty by announcing that he will relinquish the chairmanship of the ANC by December 1997 and will not stand for re-election for the President’s post of the republic when his tenure ends in 1999. Meanwhile, the Black African population even ANC members — feel that Mandela has been too conciliatory towards the Whites. His departure could heighten tensions.

There is substantive political goodwill between the two countries. There is a commonality in approach at the ideological and conceptual level in the foreign policies of India and South Africa. With bilateral trade at more than half a billion US dollars, and with areas of further technical, investment, and economic cooperation being defined by the Indo-South African Joint Commission established in 1995, prospects of economic cooperation are good.

As founder members of the Indian Ocean Rim cooperation project, both countries can consolidate a new arrangement of regional cooperation in the North Western sector of the Indian Ocean. India and South Africa could give new orientations to NAM by bringing on its agenda subjects of contemporary relevance like sustainable development, gender issues, environment management and human rights.

Having said this, one has to acknowledge that the strategic and security concerns of South Africa and India are bound to differ because of their respective geographic locations and differing security environments. But they are not mutually contradictory. Gujral comes to South Africa at a critical time. His discussions with Mandela will define the terms of reference of Indo-South African relations in the first decades of the 21st century.