SAD-BJP combine neutralised Sonia

The city voters, who had only once before re-elected a candidate in the case of Congress’ Jagan Nath Kaushal, were also exposed to the performance of each of the three main candidates this time and the incumbency factor went against Jain. Though Jain admits that it was both the Vajpayee factor and his personal image that counted for his victory, the fact that his supporters admitted that the contest was close, proves that the undercurrent in favour of Vajpayee only clicked the issue for Jain.

The Sonia factor also played its role, only to help Bansal improve his position, but not to win. Though the party’s popularity had gone down due to continued infighting over the party ticket, the visit of Sonia did enthuse the party rank-and-file, much to Bansal’s advantage. Sonia’s visit also helped the party consolidate its traditional vote-banks in the slums and colonies, where the party fared well.

Sonia’s visit helped Bansal improve his position largely this time, by polling over 40 per cent more votes than last time. This, in fact, should be a point of worry for Jain in his hour of victory. Against Bansal’s improved vote position, Jain could only add about 18 per cent to his tally of votes last time. With about 80,000 new voters added in the city, while Bansal gained about 32,000 votes more than about 77,000 polled by him last time, Jain added only about 18,000 votes to his last tally of about 1.01 lakh votes.

The dissidence factor in both the parties also played a significant role. It was, however, more pronounced in the Congress than in the BJP.

The dissidents in the Congress went against Bansal openly and asked the voters to vote for the BJP, just to defeat Bansal. On the other hand, the BJP, being a cadre-based party, the dissidents did oppose Jain’s candidature but did not come out openly, even though they did not work wholeheartedly in his support and all along kept wishing for his defeat.

Jain’s victory would prove good for the city only if the BJP government comes to power at the Centre, as otherwise he would have to make extra efforts for more funds to the city.

Jain’s second successive victory will, however, now improve his position in the party and would help keep dissidence against him at bay. On the other hand, the second successive defeat for Bansal could pose more problems for him to keep the dissidents in check, who have all along been waiting for an opportunity to make a killing.

The third successive defeat of former Union minister Harmohan Dhawan may throw him into political oblivion, as his achievements during his tenure as local MP may lose to have their impact on the public as time passes by.

Expecting much more to be polled in his favour this time, Dhawan, however, is confident of continuing to fight single-handedly, even though his supporters feel that had he been in a major political party, he could be a force to reckon with.