The Pakistani decision to impose ‘‘restrictions’’ on Hizbul Mujahideen is being viewed as a dramatic and major change in the country’s official position on Kashmir, especially its militant movement. The move — with an aim to ‘‘prevent them from using Pakistani soil to re-group as a militant force and pose a security threat to their neighbours’’— has raised questions on even the future of the separatist movement here.Although both the Pakistan government and Hizbul Mujahideen deny a ban, it certainly is being understood as Pakistan’s blanket negation of ‘‘violence as a genuine means ’’ for separatists to achieve their goal.Hizbul Mujahideen is the largest indigenous militant outfit operating inside Kashmir and has a well-knit organisational and political support base here. What will be the ramifications of this move on the ground in Kashmir?• It has certainly sent a message to the people in Kashmir, especially those who advocate separatism, that the violent campaign has no future as a militant movement. First, it was theforeign Jehadi groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad that had to curtail their activities and now it is the turn of Hizbul Mujahideen. It will certainly demoralise the militants here and make fresh recruitments difficult.• Pakistan’s policy shift has also taken away the official patronage of to Kashmir’s violent movement. The funding, arms purchase and training for the militant groups will not be easy any more. The same will be the case for infiltration as well as exfiltration.• Shifting of training camps to Kashmir is not feasible as there is a likelihood of detection by the security forces.• Militancy, especially with Pakistan’s blessings, has always played an important role in separatist politics. Now Hurriyat has to prove itself as a political force. The domination of hawks too will be tested as the doves — who were silenced after the assassination of Hurriyat leader Abdul Gani Lone last year — may rise again.• Pakistan’s direct influence on all significant decisions of the Hurriyat and other separatist political parties will diminish.But as Pakistan still sticks to its basic position on Kashmir, the move could well be aimed at bailing Pakistan out of a situation where the Kashmir problem is deemed as an issue of cross-border terrorism. Can this move actually help Pakistan distance itself from Kashmir violence?Foreign groups like Lashkar and Jaish have managed to continue their activities (though the intensity has come down substantially) even after Pakistan banned them as terrorist groups. Hizbul is an indigenous group and it can easily sustain a limited violent campaign on its own resources. The security agencies here admit that Hizb has enough trained cadres in the Valley that it can keep the pot boiling. If this happens, Pakistan can distance itself from happenings in Kashmir and it will also strengthen their argument that Kashmir problem is not an issue of cross-border terrorism.There are several other smaller groups in Kashmir, that have their bases inside Pakistan. The clamp-down is not addressed at them so they can be easily revived whenever the authorities across feel so.
