Fingers are still crossed, everybody is still on alert, access is still not there but for the first time since the threat from the Pareechu emerged, experts say there might be reason to breathe easy.
They are working backwards by posing one key question: Why has the debris wall not given way despite the size of the lake increasing every day? One possible reason, latest satellite pictures and data show, could be that it might just hold up for a long time—or even longer.
There is evidence to show—sketchy since the Chinese have still
The good news is that the debris lies in a gorge, implying that part of the pressure formed by the swelling lake is being absorbed by the mountain face on either side.
Experts say this means that the entire lake of 193 hectares (it has grown from 188 hectares) is not applying pressure on the debris wall. The water has filled neatly into the crater-like depression already existing there. It’s only the tail of the lake constricted in the gorge that’s touching the debris wall. The thickness of the wall and the fact that it is leaking from the sides means it may stay this way for a long time.
To help the situation, the rainfall in the area has come down considerably, slowing the flow of water in the lake.
Initially, it was believed that the entire volume of water in the lake of 64 million cubic metres is applying pressure on the debris wall. Hence the expectation that it would give way any time from Sunday night.
The information available with the government is still based on satellite images.
No physical inspection had been carried out so far. This, the core team believes is the biggest handicap in coming up with any definitive theory.
However, these are just initial theories. The team, comprising Central Water Commission chief engineer S K Agarwal, deputy Surveyor General of India C B Singh, National Remote Sensing Agency scientist V Bhanu Murthy and senior geologist in Geological Survey of India Y P Sharda, will submit their report tomorrow so that the government can take a call on what needs to be done.
Sensing the seriousness of the issue, the Cabinet Secretary is going to hold a high-level meeting tomorrow. The PMO is being briefed on a regular basis.
There’s also the option of putting pressure on China to allow an Indian team in. For now, diplomacy has taken over. ‘‘The two sides are in touch and they are monitoring the developments,’’ the External Affairs Ministry spokesman today.
While fresh calculations are being done, the government continues to be in full preparedness not wanting to take any chances.
The Indian Air Force carried out an aerial survey and the Army deployed five large relief groups to carry out rescue operation in case of any calamity. Five IAF helicopters were also made available to the state government to be used in case of an exigency.