Sonia in dilemma despite win

Invitations to form the government aren’t in short supply. ADMK chief Jayalalitha has once again sent signals to Sonia about her readiness to pull down the Vajpayee government. ADMK Lok Sabha MPs today did not attend the parliamentary partymeeting of the BJP and its allies. One excuse: the flight from Chennai was delayed. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Madanlal Khurana evaded questions on this saying he did not see whether they were there or not.

The ADMK is the only party which has not written to President K R Narayanan reiterating its support to the Vajpayee government in the wake of the poll results. The other allies are believed to have sent such letters to Rashtrapati Bhavan. (Vajpayee’s meeting with the President last weekend took place apparently at the President’s invitation to seek clarifications about the stance of the ADMK towards the Government.)

There was speculation that Jayalalitha, who stayed away from the meeting of the Coordination Committee today, rushed off to Hyderabad last week so that she would not have to attend the wedding of the son of MDMK leader V Gopalasamy which was attended by several BJP leaders, including L K Advani. Even Subramaniam Swamy called on Sonia Gandhi today with an offer from Jayalalitha, thethird time he has met her.

But Sonia is not biting the bait. And as of now, Jayalalitha seems to be more interested in an alternative government which could send the DMK government in Chennai packing, than in polls. Having won 30 seats out of 39 along with allies in February this year, she has not much to gain through an election. She could only face flak for bringing on another election in the country within a year.

Sonia hopes that with time, contradictions within the ruling alliance will sharpen and the regional parties will withdraw support as they get increasingly worried about the fallout of their continued association with the BJP. Congressmen are in touch with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, the rebel faction of the Biju Janata Dal and a group within the Samata Party.

Ironically those who would like Sonia to form a government in the present Lok Sabha are on both sides of the ideological divide. They include the Left, the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Laloo Yadav,who want to send the BJP packing but do not want the Congress to gain strength which they fear will be at their expense. The sound and fury generated by the MPs of the SP and the RJD in the Lok Sabha today, demanding the resignation of the Vajpayee ministry, is calculated to show that the Congress is soft to the BJP so that the Muslims do not gravitate to it, as they have been found to do in the recent polls.

There is a section within the Congress which would like Sonia to go for the kill. There is also a growing opinion within the BJP now which feels that Sonia forming a government now is probably their best bet. They calculate that the situation will worsen for them in the weeks and months to come and could recoil on the Congress in 5-6 months if the party decides to head a government.

But Sonia is quite clear that the Congress should go to the polls when the BJP-led government collapses. This was also the overwhelming opinion at the party’s Pachmarhi conclave, though most of the Congress Lok Sabha MPsthink otherwise.