Sonia’s mistakes

The events that unfolded showed she was largely accurate in her assessment. Vajpayee and Advani lost the image of being the leaders who would not go out of the way just to keep their government going. Jayalalitha gained the way she wanted to gain. If she fears prosecution in the corruption cases even now, that is solely because of the judiciary’s determination to remain free and independent. Her minister who were willing to go any extentto save their political mentor, had the approval of the BJP.

But last month proved to be a blessing in disguise for the BJP-led government as it became the gainer — for the present and for the immediate future.

Jayalalitha joined hands with Sonia Gandhi who seemed to be under the illusion that each party had a sacred duty to support her as an alternative Prime Minister and its support or refusal to support will rewrite the definition of secularism and communalism in India. The Left Front, led by the CPM seemed to agree with her, while others, mainly Mulayam Singh Yadav, did not.

Opposing, exposing and deposing are the legitimate role of an Opposition. But Sonia was more driven by her hasty hunger for power. CPM was a loser too for their attempt to use the Sonia shield to fight `Hindu communalism’. BJP’s likely gain, however, goes beyond the failure on the part of the Congress and the CPM to install Sonia Gandhi as the Prime Minister. Subsequently, the Election Commission gave a clear mandate to the BJPgovernment to take any major decision prior to the formal notification of the 13th general election. The government has become more powerful than when it was a full-fledged one.

It can rule the country during the coming five months without having a to subject itself to the principle of parliamentary accountability — an extra-constitutional role which had not been envisaged under any circumstances. The Charan Singh government which ruled the country as a caretaker one for five months had not taken major decisions.

The BJP used President K.R. Narayanan’s silence and the Election Commission’s license to indulge in transfer of officials in key positions and clearance of long pending projects. Some of them may have impact on the electorate as they are likely to include `welfare measures’ as well until the model code of conduct comes into force.

The BJP also enjoys an advantage over the Opposition as Sonia Gandhi’s Congress remains almost disorganised and fragmented in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar and faces theprospect of losing Mulayam’s crucial support in Maharashtra. And there is every possibility of a multi-cornered contest, something that would not go to the Congress’ advantage. Despite the CPM’s absolute prostrating posture in front of Sonia Gandhi there, there is no hope of an alliance between the two in its strongholds like Kerala, West Bengal and Tripura.

Indira Gandhi had played a role in forcing the seventh General elections, a mid-term one in 1980. But she did not make any effort to usurp power, like Sonia would do 19 years later. Indira Gandhi subjected herself before the very people who had given her a drubbing in the election in the aftermath of Emergency excesses.

Unlike her mother-in-law, Sonia Gandhi’s modus operandi was to try and cobble together an alliance even if it meant absolute sacrifice of any residual principle. She has seen the people of Amethi rejecting her nominee, Satish Sarma. The obvious inference she drew was that you cannot always trust the people and therefore avoid them tothe extent possible.

It is much easier manipulating parliamentary equations. But she was proved wrong there as well. In the process, the Congress Working Committee (CWC) abdicated all its power and vested that in her. In a way, she followed Indira Gandhi of the Emergency days than the post-’77 Indira Gandhi.

In fact, the years 1979, 1989 and 1999 have been the benchmark years in the politics of the country in general and that of the Congress in particular. The year 1979 for Indira Gandhi’s decision to face the people in all humility, 1989 for Rajiv Gandhi’s preferring to sit in the Opposition in spite of the Congress being the single largest party in Parliament.

The mantra for 1999 was power at any cost. Sonia Gandhi hoped to be able to head the government as easily and without opposition as she has been running the Rajiv Gandhi Foundation. She put the entire blame on Mulayam Singh when she failed.

The BJP may not sweep the election as its leader K.N. Govindacharya might have proclaimed, but Sonia asa failure and the Opposition bankruptcy will be exploited to the hilt. The Centre’s instability has now turned into the BJP’s advantage thanks to the Opposition.

There are other gainers as well: The instability at the Centre may result in the regional parties taking more prominent and decisive role in this election as well as in the process of forming the government.

(Yubaraj Ghimire, a political commentator, is with the BBC, London)