``Not a single Yadav and Muslim voter will vote for any party other than the Samajwadi Party,'' declares Haji Mushtaq Solanki, the party MLA from Kanpur. He, of course, does not explain the basis of his prophesy. Yet, Solanki's claim may not turn out to be far off the mark.Conventional wisdom in Uttar Pradesh has it that Yadavs and Muslims vote en bloc for parties they perceive as the guardians of their interests. If the two communities indeed remain Mulayam Singh Yadav's catchment area at the hustings, his SP should garner up to 20 per cent of the votes cast in the State on February 16 and 22.The SP's USP - the solid support of Muslims and Yadavs - has a flip side too. The polarisation of Muslims in favour of the SP has resulted in a counter-polarisation of Hindus against it. As a result, Hindus often vote en-bloc for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.This explains the SP's failure to win even the seats where Muslims constitute 35 to 40 per cent votes. Bijnore, for example, has a 39-per cent Muslimpopulation, but the BJP has been winning here for the past two elections. Similarly, the SP lost Saharanpur with 31 per cent of Muslims and Meerut with 30 per cent in the last elections.Yadavs, though smaller in number than Muslims, have been instrumental in effecting the SP's victory in constituencies dominated by them. These include Budaun, Mainpuri, Etawah and Azamgarh.The SP was also hit by a total desertion from its ranks by Dalits after the party snapped ties with the BSP. The SP had hoped to win friends and influence the upper castes through Amar Singh. His induction as party secretary, however, has not exactly had the desired effect. To broadbase his vote share, Mulayam appropriated the slogan Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan.Mulayam has also managed to rope in Balram Singh Yadav (till recently with the Congress) and Rita Bahuguna (daughter of former Chief Minister H.N. Bahuguna).One factor that has apparently hiked the SP's stake in the polls is Mulayam's own ambition of heading the government inDelhi. The party's reasoning is simple: ``With 16 Lok Sabha seats last time, Mulayam Singh became the Defence Minister. If we manage 40 seats or more in UP, which we should, this time, Mulayam would be an obvious frontrunner for prime ministership,'' says Ram Sharan Das, the state SP chief. Mulayam himself articulates this line at rallies, where voters are reminded that he could be PM ``if Uttar Pradesh gives us at least 40 of the 85 seats.''Take away the SP and all that remains of the United Front in UP is a rag tag combination which is not expected to have much of an impact on this month's elections. Small wonder, then, that Mulayam has conveniently ignored other constituents of the UF here and is contesting 81 of the 85 seats.
