St Antony in the doldrums

A.K. Antony started his current term with an unbelievable reservoir of goodwill. He has squandered almost all of it through his efforts to reach some kind of a compromise with K. Karunakaran. In the process, he has also shaken the Congress leadership’s faith in his abilities.

The Congress supervisors for Kerala had a heart-to-heart chat with Chief Minister Antony during the process of deciding tickets for the recent Lok Sabha elections. They pointed out that field reports indicated that at least three of the Congress’s nominees — all Karunakaran loyalists — didn’t stand a chance, and suggested that they be replaced. Antony turned out to be a staunch defender of the hapless trio, to the extent that he took personal responsibility for their performance.

The figures tell their own story. The Congress Party has failed to win in any of the 17 constituencies that it contested in Kerala. Its allies in the United Democratic Front could win just one of the other three. The Left Democratic Front swept the state in a manner that left everyone gasping. Adding insult to injury, the National Democratic Alliance actually got a seat — Muvattupuzha — which means that the BJP-led coalition is at a par with the Congress!

Obviously, it wasn’t just a question of three candidates, the chief minister and his team seem to have got it wrong just about everywhere. So what does the Congress High Command do with Kerala? Does it just write it off — as it has West Bengal? Or does it try to make an attempt to retrieve the situation? If it opts for the latter course, what does it do with A.K. Antony?

The statistics suggest that the situation is actually worse than a mere count of seats won and lost. The United Democratic Front’s share of the vote actually fell below 40 per cent, with the Left Democratic Front getting a good 6 per cent more. You have to remember that in Kerala the difference between the two was generally 2 per cent or less. (Interestingly, the BJP has put up its best performance ever in the state; it failed to win any seat but still succeeded in crossing the crucial 10 per cent mark, getting about 12 per cent.) All this means that neither Antony nor Karunakaran is in any position to throw their weight around.

The fate of the Congress is, in the ultimate analysis, a matter for that party to resolve. But the political circumstances are also setting the stage for communal conflict — and that is an issue which should concern everyone.

The horrible performance of the Congress Party meant that Sonia Gandhi was hard put to give adequate representation to Kerala in the Manmohan Singh ministry. Her choice ultimately fell on the sole United Democratic Front nominee to make it to the Lok Sabha, E. Ahammed of the Muslim League from Ponnani. Personally, I think Sonia Gandhi had no other option but there are a lot of people — especially in the Congress — who are furious with the choice.

Kerala happens to be a state where 45 per cent of the population is non-Hindu. It needs a careful hand to keep the balance between the Hindu majority, the Muslims, and the Christians. Right now, the chief minister, the Pradesh Congress Committee president, and the convenor of the United Democratic Front happen to be Christians. Kerala’s only minister in Delhi is a Muslim (as is P.M. Sayeed, the other Malayali in the ministry).

This has not gone down well with a large section of Kerala’s Hindus. It should be noted that the Left Democratic Front draws its strength almost exclusively from Hindu voters; Christian and Muslim votes are split between a plethora of small parties, most of whom back the Congress. One of the first to realise this was the late E.M.S. Namboodaripad. As far back as 1987, he had announced there was no place for the Muslim League in the Left Democratic Front (he also quoted Swami Vivekananda often during the assembly elections that year!). And now it is Congressmen who are heard grumbling that the party High Command seems determined to further alienate the Hindu vote.

It is up to the Congress leadership to stop the drift. But if there are any changes to be made, they must be made in Thiruvananthapuram rather in Delhi — since Sonia Gandhi simply doesn’t have any MP to put on display. At the same time, who is going to replace Antony?

I have heard the names of a couple of assembly members being mooted; frankly, none of them commands universal support and propping one up will alienate the others. There is no question of bringing in a non-MLA since the United Democratic Front is in no condition to fight a by-election.

Antony may thus remain chief minister by default. But there will be calls for a change of style and for a total overhaul of the ministry. Can he restore the delicate Hindu/non-Hindu balance before another Marad sets the timber ablaze?