Tripura is only the second state after West Bengal to have seen long-running Left Front dominance. The state has been witness to almost unbroken rule by the Left over the last 30 years — except for one term in between from 1988 to 1993 when the Congress formed government in alliance with the Tripura Upajati Juba Samity (TUJS) — ever since it came to power in the state in 1977. If the CPM registers yet another victory in the assembly elections on February 23, it would be its fourth successive victory in the state. This is not a small achievement for any government in our times. In the last couple of decades, Gujarat and Bihar have been exceptions to this rule. While the Narendra Modi-led BJP managed to win its third successive election last year in Gujarat, Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal registered three successive victories in Bihar in 1990, 1995 and 2000 before losing in 2005. It is only the CPM-led West Bengal and the Left Front government in Tripura that has managed to defy what is popularly termed as the ‘anti-incumbency’ factor, said to inevitably come into play against the ruling party. The Congress party dominated the politics of the state for the first couple of elections, after the state came into being in 1967. During the first assembly election in 1967, the Congress won 27 of the 30 assembly seats in the House while the CPM and CPI won two and one seats respectively. Though the Congress managed to hold on to power in the next assembly elections held in 1972, the decline of the ruling party had begun. In that election, the Congress managed to win 41 of the 60 assembly seats; the CPM won 16.The 1977 assembly election was a turning point in the electoral history of the state. Not only did the CPM manage to replace the Congress in government, it came to power with a thumping majority after winning 51 of the 60 assembly seats. Ever since that election, the CPM has dominated the state’s politics; and the Congress has not been able to revive as a political force after its humiliating defeat. The Congress could not even open its account in 1977. In a desperate move for its political revival, the Congress has formed an alliance with the Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT). As per the arrangement, the Congress has left 11 ST reserved assembly seats for the INPT, and is contesting in only 49. The Congress would be hoping to benefit from the differences that have emerged within the Left Front on the Forward Bloc’s demand for more seats. The Forward Bloc has finally moved out of the Left Front alliance and is contesting the election separately by fielding candidates in 12 constituencies. In most of these constituencies, its candidate would be contesting against the candidate of its dominant alliance partner, the CPM. It remains to be seen if the Congress benefits from the division of Left votes in these constituencies. In many ways, the poll prospects of the Congress in this election depend upon the division of Left votes. Though the Left supports the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre, during assembly elections it attacks the Congress for its ‘anti-people policies’ at the Centre. The influx of the non-tribal migrants in Tripura, an old problem in the state, continues to dominate the election. The Congress is likely to highlight this as the failure of the ruling party. The issues of tribal land alienation, and promotion of the tribal language, Kokborok, are other issues. The results will determine whether the people want a change in government or will give the Left another chance to rule the state. The writer is a fellow at CSDS, Delhi
