States of incumbency

Despite so many years at the helm, the voters appear to be fairly happy with the performance of Left Front (LF), under its new leader Buddhadeb Bhattacharya. The scorecard for the Left suggests unhappiness on controlling prices, creating jobs and on curbing corruption. Nevertheless, on a range of bijli-sadak-pani issues, the respondents commend the performance of the LF. The introduction of English in primary schools may also have contributed to the very high level of satisfaction about the education policies of the government.

The Opposition parties were unable to put up a leader in the past decades to match the image of the erstwhile LF Chief Minister Jyoti Basu. When Jyoti Basu finally retired some years ago, several Opposition parties hoped that Mamata Banerjee would take on the new Left Front CM.

The new CM’s own ratings, at 45 per cent, are marginally below the national average of all chief ministers (47 per cent). However, the findings of the opinion poll suggest that, in a head-to-head contest, the fiery Mamata-di is no match for the low-profile Buddhadeb babu.

Assam

There are two state-level factors that are having some impact on the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. The first is the performance of Tarun Gogoi, the relatively new chief minister of Assam. He is perceived as doing a good job, with a rating that is in the same league as that of Uma Bharati and Vasundhara Raje.

The second factor is the decline and fall of the AGP. This is a party that, just a brief eight years ago, had the support of more than 25 per cent of the Assam electorate. The opinion poll findings suggest that it is close to bowing out of the contest.

Assam will see what is a predominantly a two-way fight between the Congress and a resurgent BJP with Bhupen Hazarika under its belt. The opinion poll findings indicate that, in the two-way fight, the Congress will continue to maintain its lead over the BJP, through the lead will be reduced significantly.

Jharkhand

Eleven of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in the newly-formed state of Jharkhand were with the BJP. But times seem to have changed. While agriculture has grown 9 per cent in the country as a whole, the weathergods have not been particularly kind to the farmers in this state. This is likely to have an adverse impact on the prospects of the ruling party.

In Jharkhand, there are a number of seats where the tribal vote will determine the fate of the parties. While the BJP is seen as the party most likely to do most for tribals, the alliance between the Congress and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is expected to make a significant dent in the BJP’s electoral strength among the tribals.

The BJP did very well in the 1999 elections in these seats primarily because of the Opposition votes being split. This time, as a result of the Congress-JMM combination, the fight is likely to be much tougher and the seat tally of the BJP is expected to drop by almost 50 per cent in the forthcoming elections.

Orissa

The story of Orissa has often been the story of the Patnaiks and this time it is no different. In Orissa, both Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha are going to be elected and the stakes are very high for the BJD government.

The electorate is happy with the Central government and has given it among the highest rating of all states in the country.

And in the battle of the Patnaiks, J B Patnaik of the faction-ridden Congress is no match for Naveen Patnaik.

The voting intention expressed by the respondents does not offer any suggestion of an anti-incumbency sentiment. If the views of the electorate do not change between mid-March and the polling day, it is likely that the BJP-BJD combine will be able to continue its overwhelming dominance in Orissa.

Bihar

Until the 1999 elections, Bihar had the second-largest number of seats in the Lok Sabha. With the creation of Jharkhand, the number has come down to 40, but these 40 seats will be fiercely fought. An overwhelming majority of Bihari voters believe that Bihar has been left behind in the ‘India Shining ’.

There are two factors working in favour of the Laloo-led RJD combine. Firstly, by almost 2:1, the respondents see their Lok Sabha vote being determined by national, as distinct from local, factors thus reducing the importance of the anti-incumbency sentiment against the Rabri Devi government.

Secondly, despite the state having been left behind, the charisma of the RJD leader, Laloo Prasad Yadav, is intact. Moreover, the RJDchief has strengthened his front by allying with Ram Vilas Paswan and some disaffected elements from the JD (U). The RJD combine is also helped by the internal problems of the BJP-JD (U) front. There are reports of dissension between the partners and the George-Nitish spat is another factor that helps the RJD combine. These are likely to result in a swing in favour of the RJD alliance.