Story of red

With a tally of 49 seats in an assembly of 60, the ruling Left Front has matched its best performance in the state in the last three decades.

With a tally of 49 seats in an assembly of 60, the ruling Left Front has matched its best performance in the state in the last three decades. The massive victory is in keeping with the electoral history of Tripura. Over the last three decades, the LF has created a formidable electoral base. Barring 1988, it has not won less than 39 seats and 49 per cent of the vote. This dominance is based on a social coalition that cuts across the deep social divide between the indigenous adivasis and the Bengali settlers.

This time, too, the LF managed to secure a clear lead among both Bengalis and adivasis. Among Bengali settlers, its lead was 22 percentage points. This is a huge lead compared to the seven percentage point lead among adivasis. Muslims and non-dominant adivasis were the exception but these communities are too small to make a difference.

This is not to say that the non-Bengalis do not hold any grudge against the CPM-led Front. Forty-seven per cent adivasis feel that only Bengalis have benefited under LF rule. But this unease does not translate into a vote against the LF, perhaps because the adivasis trust the INPT, ostensibly a party that speaks for them, even less. The Congress pinned its hopes on the INPT bringing the adivasi vote. This proved to be the undoing of the Congress.

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Overall, 59 per cent voters expressed satisfaction with the performance of the LF government, including 51 per cent adivasis. The government was rated positively on crucial indicators such as condition of roads and control over insurgency. Moreover, 39 per cent people cutting across all income groups felt the condition of the poor has improved in the last five years.

The popularity of the sitting CM has added to the LF’s success. Manik Sarkar is the most preferred choice for the CM’s job. In popularity ratings he enjoyed a 15 percentage point lead over his nearest rival, Samir Ranjan Barman. His image as an honest leader has certainly added to the LF’s electoral dividends.

The writer is a researcher at CSDS, Delhi