Chandrababu Naidu finally took the plunge and has decided to seek a fresh mandate from the people. But what were the reasons that prompted him to shorten the life of the state assembly by nine months? The cabinet resolution strikes a high moral note. It cites opposition parties, separatist forces and Naxalites as becoming “impediments to development”. This is, clearly, only the gloss. What are the real factors that have prompted the wily Andhra Pradesh chief minister to take such a big gamble? Naidu has discerned the growing disenchantment in the rural populace, which accounts for almost 80 per cent of the electorate. While urban pockets may have benefitted from TDP rule, there is a widely-held perception that the countryside has been neglected over the last eight years. Many, therefore, believe that the ruling party has come up with the idea of early polls in a bid to divert attention from its failure to strengthen AP’s agriculture-based economy. Farmers and rural artisans have been so hard hit that hundreds have been driven to suicide — as many as 385, the largest in any state, in 1999-2000, to quote a Central government statement in the Lok Sabha. It’s little wonder then that disillusionment with the TDP has been expressing itself in the form of large crowds at the “padayatra” meetings of the Congress Legislature Party leader, Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy. Clearly, the rural voter is not ready to buy the official explanation that it is almost impossible to address the damage wrought by three successive droughts. Given this reality, Naidu wishes to cash in on the relatively better situation currently prevailing in rural areas after some good rains. Besides, the TDP hopes the host of sops it announced recently for various sections of the poor will bear fruit before the polls. But how far Naidu’s strategy works would depend on how the Opposition plays its cards. At present, the Congress party is sparing no effort to capitalise on the perceived anti-incumbency mood of voters and is even trying to revive the populism of NTR. Reddy is promising free power for farm operations although this is clearly unsustainable — the state’s agriculture sector consumes well over a fourth of the total power generated in the state. The Congress is also seeking alliances with both the communist parties and the separatist Telegana Rashtra Samiti. This means that the TDP will be isolated with only the BJP for company. What will be the outcome of these permutations is anybody’s guess, but AP is in for some exciting times.
