Despite some carping from Democrats here and self-doubts among the traditionalists in New Delhi, the Bush Administration and India are all set to enter the next phase of the nuclear dialogue between the two countries. Quick movement on the second phase of the so-called Next Steps in Strategic Partnership (NSSP), launched by the two countries at the beginning of this year, could help ensure continuity in high-technology cooperation between the two nations after the elections, informed sources here say. US Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Christina Rocca, who arrived in New Delhi today, is slated to take up a variety of issues relating to the implementation of the NSSP. Roccas’s talks will build upon the ideas on the second phase of the NSSP exchanged during the visit of US Deputy Secretary of Commerce Ken Juster to New Delhi last week. The NSSP is aimed at minimising decades-old differences on non-proliferation between the two countries and improving the flow of advanced technology from the United States to India. The first phase of the NSSP was concluded just days before Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met President George W. Bush in New York last month on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly last month. Whoever wins the tight presidential election, which is less than two weeks away, there is bound to be significant change of personnel in the US Government. Even if President George W. Bush returns to power, there would be movement in and out of the Administration. If Senator John Kerry wrests the White House, his administration could take months to settle down. In that event, little political business between New Delhi and Washington would be conducted before next summer. Under Kerry, there is the prospect of a comprehensive review of the Bush policies. Given the intense polarization of American politics today, delays in expanding high-technology cooperation under a Democratic Administration must be expected in New Delhi. Although there is bipartisan consensus in Washington on improving relations with India, the obsessive focus on non-proliferation among Democrats could return to haunt the current nuclear dialogue between the two countries. Bill Clinton insisted on a set of preconditions like the Indian signature on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty to improve bilateral relations. President Bush, in contrast, unilaterally removed most nuclear sanctions against India imposed by President Clinton in May 1998. The CTBT is no longer on the Indo-US agenda. The Bush Administration wants to promote cooperation with India in high- technology sectors despite the basic nuclear differences that hobbled bilateral relations for decades. This political commitment from the Bush Administration reflects a basic change of direction in the Indo-US nuclear dialogue. If denial of high technology to India has been the norm for three decades in the US, the Bush Administration has begun to reverse that approach. With Clinton, India was negotiating qualitative and quantitative restraints on its nuclear and missile programmes. In a big shift, the negotiations with President Bush are only focused on commitments to prevent internal and external proliferation of imported technologies. The first phase of the NSSP, concluded in September, was minimalist. The second phase could involve more substantive flows of high technology from the US as well as credible commitments from India that it will not proliferate. End-use commitments on the peaceful application of imported high technologies have been part of India’s policy from the very first agreements on nuclear cooperation it signed with the international community in the 1950s. From the days of Jawaharlal Nehru, India sought to adapt to the rules of the global market on high technology. Overdrawn views of national sovereignty were never allowed to come in the way. The question, always was about finding the right terms. In recent decades, despite the India’s willingness to strictly implement commitments on end-use, the U.S. has not been willing to lift the curbs on high-tech trade. In contrast, the Bush Administration is negotiating a series of reciprocal commitments on high-technology transfers and end-use verification. Analysts here say the NSSP is a “process and not an event”. Accumulated nuclear differences over decades are not going to be overcome, they say, in a one-shot negotiation. Completing a significant portion of the second phase in the last few weeks of the Bush Administration, sources here say, will ensure this process will not be reversed by potential political change in the United States.
