The day that counts

When Pramod Mahajan says for the first time—and, that too, the night before the counting—that the NDA will find it ‘‘a l...

When Pramod Mahajan says for the first time—and, that too, the night before the counting—that the NDA will find it ‘‘a little difficult’’ getting to 272, the story of Elections 2004 couldn’t be clearer: what began as a hyped one-horse race in January is now right down to the wire.

While this surely makes for excitement on Counting Day, it also shows how the political class has been so unsure of what the voters think of it. And, this ironically, in an election which has been the most protracted ever and regularly interrupted with a slew of opinion and exit polls.

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The only thing that could be said with certainty tonight was that Mahajan & Co, the BJP’s campaign managers who pushed for early polls riding high on the December success of three states, were toning down their ambition.

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From 300 plus in January to 272 minus today—there were even whispers of ‘‘being happy with 250’’ since that would give them a ‘‘respectable chance’’ at government formation.

In fact, the party was even talking in terms of wooing a key ally by offering the post of Deputy Prime Minister. ‘‘If we have to get a major ally, then the NDA can have two DPMs in its government…beggars can’t be choosers,’’ said a party source. Some in the party, however, feel that if the BJP’s own strength comes down from the present 179 and if the NDA numbers go below 240 leaving the ground for ‘‘blackmail’’ by allies, it would rather sit in the opposition.

If there was nervousness in the last phase, it got heightened after the decisive message from Hyderabad and its very likely echo from Chennai.

But if the BJP pins its setback onto its allies, it also has a late revival of the Congress to blame. Never in its history, has the Congress gone in for so many pre-poll alliances in what constituted a landmark shift in its politics and an admission that the country had moved into coalition mode.

And then only weeks before the polling, the Congress fielded the Gandhi siblings in UP, changing equations and sending a signal to the rank and file.

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Adding to this was the categorical shift of the Left, from a Third Front-driven formulation to a Congress-led one.

Result: both NDA and the Opposition were busy with arithmetic the night before, sending feelers to potential allies who kept their cards close to their chests, waiting for the EVMs to show the way ahead. Today’s developments, in the NDA camp:

• NDA convenor George Fernandes pressed ahead with his Mission 2004 to cobble together a government. He spoke to Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh Yadav and was in touch with Mayawati through bureaucrats close to her—the three players who could be kingmakers.

• Mulayam, however, emerged from a meeting with CPM’s Harkishen Singh Surjeet and when asked if he would back the BJP, said: Gali mat dijiye (Don’t call me names).

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• Fernandes also roped in Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat to leverage his contacts at an informal level with Pawar and other key players.

The mood in the Congress camp was upbeat. For the first time today, party leaders were saying what was until recently considered the unspeakable: a chance at 150 that would take their total to 200 plus and with the Left, a shot at New Delhi.

Many of the smaller parties kept their options open. The AGP, INLD, Haryana Vikas Party, JD(S) and even the Telangana Rashtra Samithi kept their options open on who they would support at the Centre. The NC ruled out backing either the NDA or the Congress. The DMK, PMK and MDMK have clarified that for all their respect and affection for Vajpayee, there was no question of their supporting the NDA. The NCP and the SP also ruled out having any truck with the NDA.

SP general secretary Shahid Siddiqui hinted at what could be the SP’s so far unstated position. He told The Indian Express that as the leader of the secular alliance would be chosen by consensus, and if the consensus favoured Sonia Gandhi, the SP would acept it but it would then consider the option of supporting the alliance from outside.

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The BSP, the most likely suspect to be won over by the NDA, maintained an enigmatic silence all day.