The difficulty of being Rajnath Singh

It might have taken Singh one-and-a-half years after Kalyan Singh’s unceremonious departure to get the coveted chair, but for his fellow caste men, their turn has come after 12 years. The last Rajput to occupy the CM’s chair was Vir Bahadur Singh of the Congress.

It’s going to be tough for Rajnath to meet the high aspirations of members of his community, both in bureaucracy and politics.

There are almost two dozen Rajput Ministers in his Cabinet, most of whom belong to the BJP’s allies like Jantantrik BSP and Loktantrik Congress. These parties had split their parent parties to support the BJP at Rajnath’s instance after Mayawati withdrew support to the Kalyan Singh government in October 1997. A number of them like Yashwant Singh and Raghuraj Pratap Singh have been openly voicing their discontent at portfolios allotted to them by Rajnath’s predecessors. Rajnath will have to do a fine balancing act, for fulfilling their aspirations would mean antagonising leaders of other castes. And ignoring the demands of the thakur lobby would invite their wrath.

The same holds true for Singh’s fellow caste members in the bureaucracy, who have been hoping for “good” postings from a sympathetic Chief Minister. Rajnath, however, can breathe easy at least for a month because of the Election Commission’s ban on bureaucratic reshuffle due to the impending urban local bodies polls. After that, he is certain to be swamped with requests from bureaucrats and their patrons in the BJP and its allies.

Overcoming the challenge posed jointly by his party colleagues Lalji Tandon, Kalraj Mishra and Om Prakash Singh to his appointment as UP CM might not have been easy for Rajnath. But holding together the various factions of the BJP and leading a fragile coalition of demanding partners in a caste-ridden state will be tougher. Since the death of a BJP MLA today, his majority in the assembly after the formation of Uttranchal, due this week, has been reduced to a precarious one.

The BJP leadership has posed faith in his administrative capabilities to improve the party’s electoral fortunes. The people of UP have been critical of the BJP-led government so far, due to basic unresolved problems of potholed roads, poor power supply, poor irrigation and drinking water facilites. Improving infrastructure is a time-consuming and expensive process, and Rajnath is short on time. Moroever, he has inherited coffers so empty that state government employees did not receive their salaries last month.

BJP leaders in UP have already started drawing a parallel with Sushma Swaraj, who was appointed Delhi Chief Minister barely three months before assembly elections in 1998. Various surveys conducted recently show that the BJP is unlikely to get more than 70-80 seats in next year’s elections.

Rajnath’s party colleagues, in fact, have already began counting his losses: he has lost a Union Cabinet berth and would shortly resign from the Rajya Sabha, forfeiting almost five years of his remaining term. “Unable to lead the BJP to power, Rajnath’s political career too would receive a setback like Sushma’s,” claims a state executive member.

Om Prakash Singh, a backward leader, has already sounded a warning. “It won’t be politically prudent to ignored backward castes,” he said immediately after Rajnath was sworn in. It was natural for Om Prakash to react, for he had to vacate the state BJP president’s post for Kalraj and lost out to Rajnath in the race for the Chief Minister’s post. He is also unlikely to maintain the high profile he had by holding three important portfolios — Irrigation, Public Works Department and Higher Education, during Gupta’s tenure.

While the BJP may suffer electorally by antagonising the backwards, it is hoping to pull back its Thakur vote bank, which was fast slipping out of its hands.