The Dragon has now got wings

As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh prepares to leave for China in less than two weeks, the government’s high-profile China Study Group...

As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh prepares to leave for China in less than two weeks, the government’s high-profile China Study Group, which includes the Foreign Secretary, Defence Secretary and heads of intelligence agencies, has been given an urgent brief. It has been asked to come up with recommendations for the Cabinet Committee on Security to counter China’s much-improved ability to amass troops along the border at short notice.

This was prompted after the Army revised its estimate on how soon China can move troops along the Line of Actual Control, particularly across Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. According to this fresh estimate, China can move up to two divisions (over 10,000 troops) in 20-25 days — a huge leap forward from the earlier decade-old estimate that it would take a season or two (a season is three months) for China to amass such a large number of troops.

India had carried out a detailed exercise two decades ago on the Chinese threat and categorized threat levels into low, medium and high depending on the number of troops Beijing could move given the difficult terrain.

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This assessment remained valid until 2000, after which questions were raised on a regular basis and now a fresh estimate is on the table. This has been officially conveyed to the China Study Group last month.

Consider the revised assessments:

• Low-Level threat: This is an offensive with about two battalions. India’s earlier estimate was that it would take China 15 days to plan such a strike. This is now down to 7 days.

• Medium-Level threat: This is an offensive with about two brigades. Earlier estimate was that this would take about 30 days for China. This is now down to 15 days.

• High-level threat: This is what has got the government most concerned. This involves moving troops from hinterland China and about two divisions in total, which could take even up to two seasons (three to six months) depending on weather. This is now down to 20-25 days.

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This reassessment, sources say, had to be done in view of the improved road and rail infrastructure in Tibet, connecting it to mainland China.

It’s learnt that security agencies have shown pictures of luxury cars coming right up to few kilometres from the Sino-Indian border. Also, the assessment states that China has greater flexibility and troop availability having settled its border dispute with Russia.

An initial assessment shows that India has to construct 72 roads urgently to come anywhere near addressing the Chinese challenge. The China Study Group is looking at ways to kickstart construction of these roads as well as reactivate airfields like Chushul in Ladakh, besides setting up new airfields to ward off Chinese dominance. Incidentally, Chushul is used only for chopper operations despite having a runway while China is said to have built new airfields in and around Tibet.

A set of eight strategic roads have been cleared for construction under the Special Accelerated Road Development Programme for the North-East, besides over 3000 km in Arunachal Pradesh. But sources say a much more concentrated effort will be needed. For this purpose, the Defence Ministry is moving to get Border Roads Organisation freed from all other road projects in the country, particularly those going on in Naxal affected areas.

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It’s learnt that an urgent construction and deployment will be initiated soon based on CSG recommendations. In fact, sources say, the increased incidents of transgression being reported by the ITBP along the Sino-Indian border is a result of more aggressive Chinese patrolling due to better connectivity and improved infrastructure.