The economy needs real reforms in the real sector

We all love the Indian GDP growth rate. RBI has revised its estimates from April 2006, by a full 1 percentage point, in the just released Monetary and Credit Policy Review.

We all love the Indian GDP growth rate. RBI has revised its estimates from April 2006, by a full 1 percentage point, in the just released Monetary and Credit Policy Review. Those of us who are beneficiaries of the sharp increase in income, easy availability of bank loans, and ability to speculate about the Sensex, love this statistic. We care about what RBI does to interest rates only to the extent it impacts our deposit and loan rates. There is enough trivialising of economic debates, thanks to media explosion and the compulsion to take it to the ‘common man’. The debate about a growth rate that is ambitious has to be about its sustainability, not merely its level. If we put that GDP number in danger, we could hurt millions whose lives and jobs depend on our ability to pull that off. That is a larger debate than whether credit cards will now become more expensive. Let me pick up three strands of thinking I see in the Review, that accentuate this concern.

First, there can be no concrete measure of ‘overheating’. RBI admitted to the possibility of a structural change that needs no monetary intervention, the last time around. It now points out that investment and consumption demand are up, but quickly adds that productivity gains and savings growth are also up. Therefore, opinion is still divided on whether RBI should apply the brakes. Central Bankers err on the side of caution — that explains the token increase in the repo rate. Economic history is filled with examples of cautious central bankers acting too soon. It is time we agreed that we will need credit growing at 30 per cent or even more and tonnes of money to increase capacities and create jobs. We have not moved up the curve so much to worry about ‘too much money chasing too few goods’. Give us the money, please, for the sake of growth.

Second, banks are engines that carry growth to larger populations. Our credit penetration numbers are too small by any standards, and God knows that we need so many million more homes that bank loans can fund. What our banks need is size and autonomy. If credit/deposit ratios are too high, should it only mean that banks are taking mindless credit risks? Or could it mean that they are finding themselves in credit markets that are growing too fast for their size and capacity? Surely there are areas of concern in lending practices and recovery rates. But how much can credit policy do, by altering capital requirements and risk weightages, if bank managements do not have the incentives to de-risk their balance sheets in their own business interests? The risks of bank failures are perhaps higher from the current ownership pattern and the resulting moral hazard issues, than from loan defaults. There is also limited evidence that monetary policy can actually tweak bank balance sheets into better health. Let’s allow them banks to lend as much as they can, enabling them to find the money, based on their own strengths and size.

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Third, the concern for inflation is central bankers’ dharma. Inflation hurts, and hurts the weaker sections more. Monetary policy can control inflation, only if it comes from a ‘too much money’ syndrome. We all know about the supply side constraints in our case. Central banks like to do something about inflation, anyway, using whatever tools they have. My suspicion is that we may be allowing the rupee to remain overvalued to keep this number down. The current account deficits have sustained, which means our currency should be depreciating. But it is not. An increasing inflow of global money into our economy is a reality. A central bank that worries about ‘liquidity risks’ from these flows, and the need to ‘manage’ currency impact could continue to allow the rupee to remain overvalued. That hurts export competitiveness and growth, though it keeps inflation low. What are we trading off?

We unrealistically expect RBI ensure high growth, low inflation and stable currency all at the same time, without appreciating the trade-offs. In a scenario where the economy needs real reforms in the real sector, it’s like expecting to drill a nail using a saw. We need to revisit that tool box.