The king is dead, long live the king

As predicted, the electoral battle was close. Bush was perceived to have lost all the three debates. The opinion polls indicated that he was losing momentum. Even the exit polls, in the early hours of counting, raised the prospects for Kerry. Conventional wisdom had it that a higher turnout, and a large number of first-time voters, would naturally favour the Democrats. Yet, at the end, Bush, defying many pundits and pollsters, went on to register an impressive victory. For the record, George Bush defeated John Kerry by more than 3.5 million votes, 58.6 million to 55.1 million (51 per cent to 48 per cent), and won the Electoral College 286 to 252. The voter turnout was over 60 per cent, first time in 30 years, with 115 million casting their ballot.

In doing so, President Bush becomes the first presidential candidate to win more than 50 per cent of the popular vote since his father Bush Sr in 1988. He received the most votes by any presidential candidate in history—over 58 million—even breaking President Reagan’s 1984 mark of 54.5 million votes. He becomes the first President re-elected while gaining seats in the House and the Senate since 1936, and the first Republican President to be re-elected with House and Senate majorities since 1924. Bush received a higher percentage of the popular vote than any Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. He garnered 7 million more popular votes than in 2000—more than twice the amount that President Clinton increased his vote by between 1992 and 1996.

Unlike Reagan, who was a great communicator, in the 1980s, and Clinton, who was a great charmer, in the 1990s, this time there were two candidates who evenly matched. Consequently, the election seems to have been fought on issues, values and character of the candidates, as it should be. Exit polls showed that while Bush scored more on the question of war on terrorism and moral values, Kerry impressed more on economy and Iraq.

Bush increased his support among almost all sections of voters, rich and poor, young and old, men and women, cutting across racial lines. According to exit polls, Bush was backed by: 57 per cent of the White voters (up from 54 per cent in 2000)l; 42 per cent of the Hispanic (up from 35 per cent in 2000); 11 per cent of the African-American (up from 9 per cent in 2000); 24 per cent of the Jewish (up from 19 per cent in 2000); and 41 per cent of the Asians. In Florida, 55 per cent of the Hispanic voters supported President Bush, an increase of 6 points from 2000; 47 per cent of the women (up from 43 per cent in 2000); 50 per cent of the voters in the age group of 18-64 years and 51 per cent of those above 65; 45 per cent of the first-time voters; 43 per cent of those earning US $50,000 or less per annum, and 55 per cent of those over that figure; 52 per cent of non-unionised workers, and 38 per cent of unionised workers; 52 per cent of those without a college degree and 48 per cent of college graduates. Among those who confirmed a political ideology, 83 per cent of the conservatives, 44 per cent of the moderates and even 13 per cent of the liberals voted for Bush. Among the religiously inclined, he was backed by 58 per cent of the Protestant voters, 51 per cent of the Catholic, 24 per cent of the Jewish, 23 per cent of people following other faiths, and 30 per cent of the non-believers.

To achieve this, both parties put in a tremendous amount of groundwork. It is estimated that about 40 million phone calls were made in the last few days of campaigning to reach out to voters. Each party relied on hundreds of thousand of volunteers to take their message out, and get the voter out. In Ohio alone, 50,000 Republican volunteers motivated their voters to go to the booths on polling day. The message seems to be clear. Despite the high cost of electioneering—it is estimated that the 2004 election cost about US $4 billion, with another US $3 billion spent by non-party support groups—there is no substitute for grassroot work.

Contrary to the general perception that the US election has sharply divided the nation, the political division is hardly as significant as being made out by many analysts. It is worth remembering that the other JFK, Kennedy, had defeated Nixon in 1960 election by a mere 120,000 votes, yet he is today remembered fondly by many in the world. On the other hand, Clinton was a great divider, had never won more than 50 per cent of the popular votes, generating strong conflicting opinion, yet today is remembered for his charm!

George Bush has won 51 per cent of the popular votes and almost held the same electoral college votes as in 2000. Which means that contrary to the Reagan revolution in the 1980s, when Reagan and Bush Sr both won landslide victories, Bush’s majority can be overturned, or extended much more easily. But to be able to do that, one needs a clear vision, and the ability to relate the message to the American people.

The writer is the director of Liberty Institute, an independent think-tank based in New Delhi