The Veepstakes

Here, in reverse order, are our picks of the five most likely candidates to be chosen as second in command for their respective parties:

Barack Obama

5. Hillary Rodham Clinton: On one level, this makes all the sense in the world. The senator from New York received nearly 18 million votes in the primaries and showed considerable strength in a series of states — Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, among others — in which Democrats must succeed in order to get to 270 electoral votes in the fall. On the other hand, putting Clinton on the ticket runs directly counter to Obama’s central message —”change only comes by sending new people to Washington”.

4. John Edwards: If you believe the conventional wisdom that Obama needs help courting rural, working-class voters, then Edwards could be a good fit. Edwards perfected his populist pitch during the primary season, and his roots in the South would help balance the ticket, at least from the perspective of geography.

3. Kathleen Sebelius: It’s hard to know whether Obama can choose a woman whose name is not Clinton. Clinton’s most ardent supporters would almost certainly see such a move as a final indignity in a race in which they have complained of sexism. But it’s hard to believe that the average Clinton backer would be so offended by such a move that she would walk away from the ticket. The governor from Kansas would affirm Obama’s call for new leadership in the party.

2. Jim Webb: Obama believes very strongly that he can compete and win in Virginia, becoming the first Democrat to carry the state at the presidential level since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Putting a Virginian on the ticket could help. The senator from Virginia has impeccable military credentials as a decorated Vietnam veteran and, like Obama, was opposed to the Iraq war from its start.

1. Ted Strickland: Obama may not want to put Clinton on the ticket, but he and his campaign know that the best way to unify the party behind him is to offer an obvious olive branch to her supporters. Strickland, who was elected governor of Ohio in 2006, accomplishes that task, as he was one of Clinton’s most prominent backers during the primary season.

John McCain

5. Joe Lieberman: Yes, we know Lieberman is an (Independent) Democrat. But in the few days since Obama sewed up the Democratic nomination, Lieberman has emerged as McCain’s leading attack dog. It’s no secret that Lieberman and McCain are personal friends and Lieberman has already been vetted by the national media.

4. Charlie Crist: The governor of Florida was one of a trio of vice presidential hopefuls invited to McCain’s Arizona ranch over Memorial Day weekend, a trip that seemed to serve as the official kickoff to the GOP veepstakes. Crist is doing all the right things to make sure he is in the mix — his fund-raising work for the Republican Governors Association is a perfect example.

3. John Thune: The junior senator from South Dakota is straight out of central casting, but he may be too conventional for McCain who is looking to think (and pick) outside the box. If McCain wants to make a safe pick, Thune could well be the guy.

2. Mitt Romney: The former Massachusetts governor keeps climbing the list, thanks to his seemingly unending willingness to do what McCain asks of him. Romney has been tapping into his fund-raising network frequently and effectively on McCain’s behalf and has emerged as a prominent television surrogate for the presumptive nominee.

1. Tim Pawlenty: “T-Paw,” a.k.a the two-term governor of Minnesota, remains in the pole position on this list for the second straight month. Sure, Pawlenty isn’t perfect (talking publicly about your wife’s reluctance to have sex with you isn’t exactly the smartest move), but he has more going for him than anyone else on the list. He and McCain are friends, and his resume includes two statewide wins in a swing state.