The Wen and the Why

Both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Premier Wen Jiabao will have to navigate some unchartered waters during their upcoming summit. The re...

Both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Premier Wen Jiabao will have to navigate some unchartered waters during their upcoming summit. The relationship between India and China has acquired unprecedented momentum in recent months. This new bonhomie is premised on the three factors. Both countries have decided to focus on the mutual benefits of economic interdependence. India is in the fortunate position of being courted by all the major powers at the moment. The Chinese solicitude towards India may also have something to do the growing sense that India is being wooed by the US as a counter to China. And both countries have adopted a largely realistic tone: India has a more realistic assessment of what it can claim on issues like Tibet, while China is trying to project itself as a benign power. Both have given up on the idealism and moralism that are usually enormous diplomatic irritants.

But will the new emphasis on economics and the current conjuncture in international politics be enough to overcome the thorny issues that divide the two countries? Will the prospects of a liberal, trade-based utopia be sufficient to overcome classic balance of power considerations? The fact that Wen Jiabao is coming to India from Pakistan should be a reminder that it is too premature to declare the death of balance of power politics. Even more than the US, China has built up Pakistan as a counter to India. There is no evidence yet that China is going to rethink its regional strategy for South Asia. The China-Pakistan military nexus will continue to cast a shadow on the relationship. Second, China’s stance on admitting India as a full member of the nuclear club is still not very clear. Again, there is no evidence yet that China will accommodate India’s aspirations.

Both sides have agreed that making borders between the two countries irrelevant is a better long term goal than settling the border dispute. While there has been some progress on thee border talks, it is still unclear what both sides will eventually agree to give up. Can the momentum in the relationship between the two countries be sustained if these issues are squarely confronted? Both countries would like the world to believe that the days of classic power politics are over, that they prefer economic interdependence over military rivalry, cooperation over competition, the future over the past. Both would like to believe that international politics is not a zero sum game. But in their view of territory, in their acquisition and proliferation of arms, in their quest for strategic partners, both countries continue to be governed by balance of power considerations. The future of their relationship depends upon how artfully they can negotiate this tension.