They need each other

The meeting between President Boris Yeltsin and Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto broke the psychological barrier that has existed between Russia and Japan since the war of 1904. Russia at last put behind it the defeat of the imperial navy at the hands of the Japanese navy. The Russians also assured the Japanese of support for their membership of the Security Council, they have also assured India of similar support.

The Russo-Chinese meeting was also a success, particularly in settling the long standing border dispute between the two. It appears, from the Chinese perspective, to have been a greater success than President Jiang Zemin’s meeting with Bill Clinton, but the Chinese President’s visit to the US was by no means a failure. It underlined the importance of Chinese-American ties. Though the weakest of the three, China appears to have emerged as the kingpin, setting the pace of normalisation among Russia, China and Japan.

The US wants to be the major player in Asia. Because of its military superiority and the historical animosity among China, Russia and Japan, it will continue to influence policies in Asia, but time is against it. Anticipating such an eventuality, the US is building counterbalancing forces to the big three in Asia. ASEAN nations like Malaysia and Indonesia have been proved to be no more than paper tigers. The great Asian tigers were always toothless but a myth had been created around them. This is where the relevance of India emerges for the US.

India is the only big Asian nation which is not in North Eastern Asia, an advantage, because it is not tied down to the compulsions of the area. It is also militarily and politically secure. Added to it is a historical dispute with China and a certain competitiveness. For the US, India has become the ideal counterbalance to the growing influence of China. It is this recognition of India’s inherent strength that has made Washington give to India big power importance.

The US policy towards Pakistan remains ambiguous but the Pakistanis appear to have been quietly dumped by the Americans except to a limited extent in relation to Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia. India has two clear alternatives in its strategic perspective. The first is to marginalise American interest and develop its own geostrategic ties with China, Russia and Japan. But that is difficult and success may be slow in coming. The others may not take it seriously enough.

The other alternative is to play the game with the Americans. If the US is to have strategic relations with India which will be in the nature of an alternative relationship to that being pursued by Washington in regard to China, India must tread carefully and get all it can from the Americans.

There is a second fiddle also playing the role of Japan in case China and the US in the long term develop a strategic cooperation to the exclusion of the Russians and the Japanese. There is great apprehension in Japan about the US dumping Japan and building ties with China. As more than one Japanese commentator has pointed out, the Americans deep down like the Chinese but not the Japanese of whom they are suspicious. Like the Russians and their 1904 defeat, the Americans have not forgotten Pearl Harbour nor the fact that Japan is the only country that came close to defeating the Americans in a naval war in the Pacific. This makes the Americans uncomfortable. For all their differences, they are a little more cosy with the Chinese.

A strategic relationship with the US will give India one singular advantage that of having the US on its side. This fundamental gain could open many more avenues. All these years India has been in an opposing position to the US, but to work as an ally needs a new outlook and expertise. For one dealing with the Americans requires toughness, to be able to get as much out of them as they try to get out of you. Not making things easy is the fact that many American diplomats have not been able to cease being cold war warriors who continue to see things as black and white. A new breed of American diplomats is long overdue.

In the new geostrategic reality in Asia India should have good relations with all the principal players. While relations with China, because of the Pakistan factor and the border are thorny, with Russia and Japan there is no reason why they should not be excellent. Being away from North East Asia, deep in the South of the continent, India can be the counterweight to any developments in Northern Asia.

Japan for the first time has a nagging fear of isolation. The visit of the Japanese Prime Minister to Russia was the Japanese way of telling the Americans they were concerned about what might come out of the Chinese President’s visit to the US. India should lure the Japanese, who still behave as a shy bride on military matters, into a strategic dialogue.

India should not be marginalised in the new momentous developments in Asia. It should keep all its options open, particularly so with the Americans who alone can provide a political bridge between South Asia and North East Asia. The Americans want to be part of Asia, they want a relationship through marriage. India should provide that relationship but not close its options with Russia, Japan or China. It is the time of alternatives in the absence of identifiable enemies.