‘This is absolute disaster for Pakistan’

JENNIFER HARBISON, HEAD OF ASIA DESK, CONTROL RISKS, LONDON

“I think this is anticipated. It is well within what we expected might happen. We have known since her arrival back in Pakistan she was in danger, so I don’t think the changes our fundamental risk assessment.”

“This is not Pakistan itself under threat. This is an assassination in an election campaign and has to be seen in that context.”

“It does cast a shadow over the election and it raises some concerns over how the government might deal with any popular reaction to this. There is the potential that her supporters could take to the streets and that is something that will be difficult for the government to address without at least considering a return to Emergency rule.”

“In technical terms the party has simply lost a single candidate. In real terms the party has lost its leader and the main campaigner but technically the election can go ahead. It might be postponed, I think, cancellation will be much more difficult to do.”

ERIC WITTENAUER, OIL ANALYST AT A.G. EDWARDS, ST. LOUIS

“I think it is modestly supportive of oil markets, not because it has an impact on actual production or supply, but it does offer some geopolitical support to a market which continues to be tight. Being a hotbed of al Qaeda activity and camps, it brings some support.”

WILLEM SELS, CREDIT STRATEGIST, DRESDNER KLEINWORT, LONDON

“Equity market futures have not dropped dramatically. Geopolitical risks are always something that can add to where the market is going if the market doesn’t have more important subjects to jump on. But I think we have enough on our minds in the credit markets and the liquidity crunch that this will remain more important than geopolitical risks. I wouldn’t think this will do much to equity or credit market direction.”

US STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL, WASHINGTON

“We do condemn the attack. The attack shows that there are still those in Pakistan trying to undermine reconciliation and democratic development in Pakistan.”

PETER BEUTEL, OIL ANALYST, CAMERON HANOVER IN NEW CANAAN, CONNECTICUT

“It raises the level of tension, but it’s hard to connect the dots, try though the market may, between a political assassination and oil.

“It definitely is not a reason to sell and puts everybody on tenterhooks.”

MAX KING, INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, INVESTEC ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON

“This is absolute disaster for Pakistan. Pakistan is clearly turning into one of the failed states in Asia.

I suppose it could have an impact on India. She (Benazir Bhutto) is a politician who basically had the best attitude towards India.”

WILLIAM ADAMS, METALS ANALYST, BASEMETALS.COM, LONDON

“The jump up we’ve had in gold has been partly on the back of this news as its a destabilising factor.

“Overall the geo-political scene has been fairly quiet of late so this is a fresh escalation in the run up to elections there.”

CAMILLA SUTTON, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, SCOTIA CAPITAL, TORONTO

“Bhutto is just a concern. The move to gold is the flight to safety and quality on the headlines on a quiet illiquid day.”

LOU BRIEN, MARKET STRATEGIST, DRW TRADING, CHICAGO

“It adds to an undercurrent of unease here. People are trying to work out the linkage of this event to the financial markets.”

JIM AWAD, CHAIRMAN OF W.P. STEWART ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK:

“It highlights the long-term geopolitical issues we face with instability in that region with rising Islamic fervour, which ultimately threatens the oil-producing areas.”

“The most direct effect is the terror premium on the price of oil, which has a stagflation effect on world economies.”

MATTHEW STRAUSS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE STRATEGIST AT RBC CAPITAL, TORONTO

“Right now we are not seeing any significant impact of the news in Pakistan on major currencies, but obviously, if this leads to major upheaval in the country and on its neighbours, we might see some increase in risk aversion, which may be felt on carry currencies.”