This monsoon, normal means a bumper crop…

In its final monsoon forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has maintained that rains will be 100 per cent normal, subject to a...

In its final monsoon forecast, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has maintained that rains will be 100 per cent normal, subject to a model error of plus/minus four per cent, during the four-month spell. The IMD has also predicted normal rains over four homogeneous meteorological regions. ‘‘We have finetuned our forecast and reduced the model error by one per cent,’’ said Dr S.K. Srivastav, IMD director-general.

Going by these forecasts, economists and crop scientists say there will be a bumper crop this season, resulting in a 3-3.5 per cent growth in the agricultural GDP. The rising inflationary trend in prices, based on point-to-point movement in wholesale price index, will be contained because of the likelihood of bumper crops being harvested 15 days earlier.

Dr Ramesh Chand, who heads the agricultural research unit at the Institute of Economic Growth (IEG), said: ‘‘Preliminary indications point to a favourable harvest. Crop situations will, however, depend on future weather conditions. If the present trend in rainfall distribution continues, we can expect a growth in agriculture to the extent of 3 to 3.5 per cent.’’

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According to Dr Chand, farm growth rate has been decelerating in the last 5 to 6 years. If there’s a good monsoon, a growth rate within a range of 3 to 3.5 per cent can be expected.

Dr Anil Sharma, principal economist at the National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER), too endorsed the view that if the present monsoon trend continued, there would be a bumper crop.

At Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Director General Dr Mangla Rai pointed to the rainfall distribution: ‘‘If the rains continue to be good this season, we will have a bumper crop. Harvesting will be advanced by 15 days due to early sowing.’’

Monsoon 2004: Final Forecast

10-parameter power regression model
• Average cumulative rainfall in 4-month season likely to be normal at 100 pc, subject to a model error of plus/minus 4 pc

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10-parameter probabilistic model
• 45 pc chance for near normal rainfall (98 to 102 pc of LPA or long period average) * 25 pc chance for above normal rainfall (103 to 110 pc of LPA) * 7 pc chance for excess rainfall (more than 110 pc of LPA) * 3 pc chance for deficient rainfall (less than 90 pc of LPA) * 20 pc chance for below normal rainfall (90 to 97 pc of LPA)