Time runs out for reformers

The flamboyantly sure manner, with which Chernomyrdin has clipped the wings of two Yeltsin loyalists and the most influential reformers in the Cabinet, has led many analysts to believe that time is really running short for reformers in Russia.

“The Premier is partially taking on presidential powers,” daily newspaper Izvestia declared in a front-page headline after the Cabinet shake up.

Nemtsov, a presidential hopeful, has suffered the toughest blow, ceding supervision of the Russia’s lucrative fuel and energy sector to the more cautious Chernomyrdin. Oil and natural gas have been the main sector over which the Russian Premier had presided for nearly a decade before Yeltsin handed it to Nemtsov last year when he joined the Cabinet for the first time.

Chernomyrdin also deprived Nemtsov’s close friend Chubais, of the control of a commission governing the Russian mass media, which reformers had hoped to use in the next presidential elections.

Although both Chubais and Nemtsov tried to play down the reshuffle, there is speculation in the Russian media that having fallen from Yeltsin’s favour after the sensational disclosure of a book royalty scam, Chubais might be fired from the Cabinet soon.

It may be recalled, the Kremlin was rocked by a scandal last November when it emerged that Chubais and four of his closest political allies in the government split part of a $450,000 writing advance in October for an as-yet unpublished book on privatisation.

The reputation of Chubais as a guardian of market reform and an architect of privatisation in Russia, was badly tarnished by the scam, with Yeltsin firing three of his fellow authors from the government.

Russian press has also mentioned, in this connection, the recent rupture in behind-the-scenes partnership between Chubias and Yeltsin’s younger daughter and presidential image-maker Tatyana Dyachenko as one of the reasons for his fall from President’s favour. It’s with the help of Dyachenko, according to Russian press, that Chubais staged a comeback to the Kremlin after Yeltsin’s reelection in 1996, becoming, for all practical purposes, no. 2 in the Kremlin hierarchy.

Recently it was Nemtsov not Chubais who accompanied Dyachenko in the military chopper which took the delegation to meet Yeltsin at his retreat in Valdai. Yeltsin was there on a two-week working vacation amid-intense media speculation about his health.

But despite the recent elevation of Prime Minister Chernomyrdin, political analysts say that Chubais does not seem prepared to quit the government. The recent reshuffle, they say, is a partial success for the people who have been long trying to move out Chubais and Nemtsov. It is seen only as a prelude to the drawn out power struggle in the Kremlin amidst speculation about early presidential elections due to the ongoing illness of Yeltsin.Communists are once again speaking of early presidential elections, which they predict will take place not later than the summer.

However, some analysts believe the reshuffle is part of the President’s gameplan to control the internecine struggle within the so-called “party of power” in the Kremlin.

Yeltsin has long ruled the Kremlin with a divide-and-rule strategy, letting his ministers and top aides compete for influence and the recent reshuffle may again turn out to be the same, they argue.

“Yeltsin showed he is still his old self’, said Andrei Pointkovsky, director of Moscow’s Centre for Strategic Studies, referring to the President’s strikingly angry pose on his first day at work at his Kremlin office this year after his recovery from viral infection.

Terming government’s performance as “failure,” he rebuked Chernomyrdin and his two deputies for failing to meet his pledge on wage arrears to millions of workers.

“He will not be manipulated by one group of advisers. He will keep things balanced,” underlined Pointkovsky.

Others say, by taking away important portfolios from the two First Vice-Premiers, Chernomyrdin has deprived himself of the “cushion of security”. In the past, Chubais and Nemtsov have often been targets of the Opposition-dominated state Duma for the failure of government, mainly in economic and financial fields.

“Since Chernomyrdin has concentrated so much power in his hand, now he will be the main target of criticism from the left and the right, and most importantly, from above,” writes liberal daily newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta.

Indeed, Nemtsov has already fired the first salvo at Chernomyrdin, signaling that the Kremlin has still not closed its ranks behind a single candidate for the next presidential elections. “The prospects of Boris Yeltsin’s participation in new elections exists, and this is one of the more stabilising factors for our society,” Nemtsov said in a live interview to the Ekho Moskvy radio station.

According to the Russian Constitution, adopted in 1993, a president can run for two successive terms. Yeltsin, reelected to a second term in 1996, first raised eyebrows last fall when on two separate occasions he hinted that he has not yet made up his mind about whether to run in 2000.

President’s supporters have since argued that Yeltsin was elected to his first term in 1991 under the old Soviet Constitution, and so has technically served only one term as Russian president. The matter will eventually be decided by the Russian Constitutional Court.

Although Chernomyrdin has never said publicly that he will run for the presidency, he came close to it last fall, dropping not-so-subtle hints that Kremlin insiders should unite behind his candidacy, or else communist and nationalist rivals like Alexander Lebed might win the presidential race.

“Not to think about the presidency is something impossible. It is necessary to prepare for elections,” he said on national television, clearly suggesting that the Kremlin should close ranks behind his candidacy.

Nemtsov’s public support for Yeltsin’s candidacy is aimed at thwarting Chernomyrdin’s plan, if any, for presidency. Observers don’t rule out more volleys at Chernomyrdin in coming weeks as his two young deputies try to regain their lost positions, simultaneously intensifying the power struggle within the Kremlin.