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Journalism of Courage
The attacks on American soil on September 11 have made it clear that it will be extremely difficult to forecast the potential new attacks against the US or other countries in the future. The analysis of terrorist attacks during last few years fails to provide a clear basis for predicting the seriousness of the future threat.
Recent reports indicate that US intelligence agencies apprehend an attack by Al-Qaeda as big as or bigger than the one on September 11. Video footage has shown Osama bin Laden signaling to Britain as the new target. There is reason to believe it may even be Israel or India. This time Al-Qaeda may opt for soft targets in the civilian population.
It is feared the future threat could be from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) such as chemical, biological, nuclear or radiological weapons. The use of WMD gains importance because of its unconventional nature, simplicity in the mode of attack, easy availability, secrecy of origin, capacity to cause thousands of casualties and widespread panic etc. During 1993/95, after the terrorist attack with Sarin nerve gas in a Tokyo subway, the world realised the genie is out of the bottle.
There are reports that Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organisations have been exploring the possibility of the use of chemical and biological weapons. In all probability, these groups have acquired rudimentary capability to manufacture these weapons. This does not automatically translate into the ability to conduct a mass attack. But it is of concern that countries such as Iraq, Iran and North Korea are allegedly in possession of weapons of mass destruction.
The Americans failed to capture bin Laden in the caves of Afghanistan but they have gathered evidence regarding his preparedness on WMD. Instructions for making chemical weapons, diagrams of US nuclear power plants and public water facilities were retrieved from the caves. A CNN report in March refers to a 25-page document about nuclear weapons and design found abandoned in Afghanistan. Two Pakistani nuclear scientists are thought to have shared their knowledge with the Al-Qaeda network. The CIA believes that the network may have been seeking a radioactive dispersal weapon, or a ‘dirty bomb’.
In spite of internationally accepted chemical and biological weapons conventions, it is extremely difficult to detect the availability of these weapons with state as well as non-state actors. This is mainly because of the dual use nature of chemical and biological agents and the inherent difficulty in distinguishing legitimate commercial ventures from offensive weapons programs.
But why should Osama strike now? His safe haven in Afghanistan no longer exists; the Al-Qaeda has lost its center of gravity. Now it has no freedom of movement or training. But at the same time, Al-Qaeda’s publicity has raised expectations among its rank and file and its donors. The organisation is yet to achieve its main aim of liberation of Palestine. They will not allow the US to feel safe, and will fight despite their relative military weakness.
The writer is a defence analyst
