Track this Tibetan arc

Regardless of New Delhi recently closing its Tibet option, the Dalai Lama continues to receive immense support in the Western world for his ...

Regardless of New Delhi recently closing its Tibet option, the Dalai Lama continues to receive immense support in the Western world for his lonely struggle to arrive at a settlement with Beijing. His recent meetings in Washington with American President George W. Bush and his secretary of state, Colin Powell, amply highlight this. Notwithstanding their preoccupation with the Iraq crisis, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and President Bush have shown interest in the Tibetan issue, persuading the Chinese leadership towards a serious dialogue with the Dalai Lama.

In fact, many significant changes seem to have occurred since September 2002. A visit by the Dalai Lama’s envoy, Lodi Gyari, to Beijing on the eve of the congress and leadership change in China, followed by another visit in June this year, seem to be bearing fruit slowly but steadily. The tone, texture and method of Beijing’s handling of the Tibet issue, indeed, are changing substantially.

Much is expected from China’s new president, Hu Jintao. In fact, Hu may prove to be a blessing in disguise for the Tibetans. Being the party secretary in Tibet, Hu was responsible for the imposition of 1989 martial law in Lhasa. He is the only Chinese leader to attain such high office after having served in Tibet — as such he knows the Tibetan issue better than others. If Jiang Zemin gained distinction for successfully resolving the Hong Kong issue, there could be reason to believe that Hu Jintao could forge a breakthrough on Tibet.

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The Bush administration’s inclination, despite not being known for diplomatic adroitness, to continue with the previous administration’s unequivocal support for the Tibetan cause is noteworthy. Bush’s decision to appoint Under Secretary of State Paula Dobriansky as special coordinator for Tibet is indicative of Washington’s commitment.

There is little that China is going to gain by prolonging the Tibet crisis. Certainly, Tibet will be leaderless if Beijing’s intention is to buy more time before a durable peace is found. But Beijing will risk an anarchic Tibet if the issue becomes an instrument for politically desperate Tibetan groups to adopt the extremist path, abandoning the Dalai Lama’s moderate approach. If this happens, it would only add to the strength of the Uighurs, who are getting increasingly radicalised.

Political accommodation through dialogue seems to have become the buzzword in the aftermath of the Cold War in resolving most difficult geopolitical issues.

Meanwhile, there are hardly any visible signs to suggest that by changing tack on Tibet, India’s security concerns vis-a-vis China have lessened in any manner. Ironically, the intense Tibetanisation of the Himalayan region over the last two to three decades seems to have served China’s interests well. The Dalai Lama has cleverly carved out space for himself through cultural and religious activities along the Himalayan belt from Arunachal Pradesh to Ladakh.

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To add to the list of dozens of Tibetan spiritual leaders having a foothold in the Himalayas, China is deliberately exporting more influential lamas into India, the most prominent of them being the Karmapa Lama. The fact that the fifth Dalai Lama was born in Tawang is being added to China’s new articulation of its claim over Arunachal Pradesh. The Dalai Lama’s own statement made during his last visit to Tawang has also added a new twist to the issue. The Tibetan leader’s visits to Ladakh this summer confirmed his influence in large swathes of the Himalayan region.

There is no doubt that China’s ‘‘West Development Campaign’’ would enhance the scope for its influence across the Himalayas. The picture is getting increasingly confused along the Sino-Indian frontiers, and it could be that a solution to the Tibet problem would be found only at India’s expense.