At the end of one week, it is clear that projections of an early, clinical war with pin-point destruction were grossly overstated. The advance columns of Anglo-American forces certainly made a dramatic dash toward Baghdad and the absence of opposition appeared to have given the impression that Iraqis would not fight even if no flag-waving receptions were to be seen. What has started to emerge is the carefully crafted strategy of Saddam Hussein to fight back the only way he probably could; through guerrilla tactics and suck the Anglo-American forces deeper into Iraq with stretched out logistic lines of communications; and the promise of stretched out ferocious street fighting at the end of it. The elements have added to the difficulties of the attacking forces with prolonged dust storms. The overstated claims by the Anglo-American forces have started to erode the credibility of their information system.The promised massive air strikes to create “shock and awe”, destructive as they were, also seem to have had limited impact in spite of the tremendous technological capability it entailed. The fact that Iraqi television continued to beam images for six days without being disrupted in spite of an average of 1,100 bombing sorties per day, mostly over Baghdad, is a typical example, and hence remains inexplicable. This allowed Saddam Hussein to appear on camera to show he was alive in spite of the “decapitation strike” specifically carried out to kill him which also altered the battle schedule. Three days later he was again exhorting his countrymen to keep fighting. But all this is not to say that the Anglo-American forces would not win the war. What this points to is that the post-war situation is likely to be far more chaotic and challenging than assumed so far. Already the situation in Basra indicates the type of complications that could emerge. Guerrilla warfare as being waged by Iraq so far cannot be carried out for any length of time without substantive local support. The reality that much of the fighting is now taking place in and around the holy cities of An Najaf and Karbala would have far reaching consequences for the responses to this war. Regardless of the number of casualties, the impact on Iraqis, who have been suffering from deprivations for years, would be great. It is time that the international community starts to pay attention to ways to ensure that humanitarian relief can be made accessible to the people as urgently as possible.
