Tribes and the state

Against all odds, the Nagaland People’s Front has booked a return ticket to Dimapur by emerging as the single...

Against all odds, the Nagaland People’s Front (NPF) has booked a return ticket to Dimapur by emerging as the single largest party in the Nagaland Assembly. Though the party marginally trailed behind the Congress in terms of vote share, it managed to touch the half-way mark of 30 seats along with the BJP and NCP, its allies in the previous Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) government. The alliance had declared that it will contest the election together, but unlike other states where friendly contests among allies are an exception, in Nagaland it seems to be the norm. Effectively, the alliance was functional in only 38 seats; in the remaining 22 seats there was a friendly contest among the allies, and this might have helped the alliance in splitting the Congress’ votes.

The Congress, on the other hand, failed to reach the half-way mark despite promising numerous packages from the Centre and also endorsing the controversial 16-point programme which has a clause on integration of ‘Naga inhabited areas’ into a single political entity. The Congress also counted on the split in the NPF, which was followed by President’s rule in the state. But the NPF’s core base did not shift.

The party trailed behind the Congress among all communities other than the Angami tribe. Among Angamis, the NPF led by 35 percentage points, and this concentration of votes translated into a higher number of seats for the party. Overall, the NPF-led DAN government was fairly popular as the majority of voters expressed satisfaction with its performance. However, this sense of satisfaction was concentrated more in urban areas, and even in the rural areas the literate and educated voters rated the government more positively than their non-literate counterparts.

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Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio’s popularity seems to have benefited the NPF. He emerged as the most popular candidate for the CM’s job, and his closest rival, Congress leader, Imkong, trailed behind him by 28 percentage points. Rio comes from the Angami tribe, and nearly two-third of his supporters are Angamis. When it came to satisfaction with Rio’s performance as CM, although the majority of voters expressed satisfaction, this opinion was by and large concentrated among the Angamis.

The Angamis and Aos are the two largest tribes of the state, and they constitute nearly 20 per cent of the electorate each. The NPF’s emergence under Rio’s leadership as a party predominantly supported by the Angamis reveals a new trend in the state’s politics. Unlike the 1980s and ’90s, when the Congress enjoyed a dominant position among all Naga tribes, the 2008 election indicates that deep-rooted social cleavages are now gaining political expression.

The writers are researchers at CSDS