UF performance to affect NC chances in J-K

The authorities are even finding it difficult to transport polling officials and materials to some of the polling stations.

Going by the campaign factors in the State and the trends from the rest of the country, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can be expected to bag two of the five seats, the National Conference is set to get one or two seats while the Congress and Independent candidates may bag one seat each, provided there is a largely fair and free election.

The prospects of a BJP-led government at the Centre is expected to further boost the chances of the BJP candidate from the Udhampur constituency in the Jammu region while it will have only a marginal impact on the prospects of the party’s candidates in the Baramulla and Anantnag constituencies of the militancy-hit Kashmir Valley, where the BJP hardly has a following.

In case the Congress is able to cobble up a government, it can expect a positive impact only in the Anantnag constituency where former Union minister Mufti Mohammad Sayed may be able to enhance his prospects.

The loser in both the scenarios will be the National Conference, a constituent of the United Front, which has fared badly at the hustings. The NC candidates were strong contenders in all the three constituencies going to the polls on March 7.

It could still be touch-and-go for its candidate, Saif-ud-din Soz, from the Baramulla constituency. He is pitted against Deen Mohammad Cheetah of the BJP and Abdul Ghani Vakil of the Congress. However, over the past one week, Soz has been feeling more threatened by Independent candidate, Muzzaffar Hussain Baig, who enjoys the tactical, though undeclared, support of the powerful All Party Hurriyat Conference. The Congress nominee is being touted as a “dummy” candidate and is finding it hard to obtain local support even from his party workers. The poor performance of the United Front constituents may, therefore, help Baig in turning the tide in his favour.

In Anantnag, Mufti is pitted against candidates from two constituents of the United Front the Janata Dal (JD) and the NC. Despite the JD’s requests to leave the seat for Union Minister Mohd Maqbool Dar, the NC fielded its candidate, Mohd Yusuf Taing. With the United Front not destined to play a leading role in the Centre, Mufti can expect a fall-out in his favour.

The BJP candidate from the Udhampur constituency, sitting MP Chaman Lal Gupta, was well-placed in the constituency even before the results from other parts of the country had poured in. His NC rival, R.S. Chib, who recently left the Congress, is not considered a local candidate.

Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah’s son, Omer Abdullah, is better placed as the NC candidate from the Srinagar constituency while the BJP candidate from the Jammu constituency, Vaid Vishnu Dutt, is expected to win the seat as per general estimates.

Observers, however, point out that these factors can come into play only in case of fair elections. Given the inaccessible areas, some of which will be out of reach for even the polling agents of most parties, and the law and order situation in the State, it would be difficult to expect such a situation.