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Uncertainty for sure

The United Nations Mission to Nepal has been able to secure a six-month extension beginning...

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The United Nations Mission to Nepal (UNMIN) has been able to secure a six-month extension beginning January 23 for its operation in Nepal. That means supervising the management of arms and armies of the government and Maoists, and observing elections to the constituent assembly scheduled in April. But it failed to secure an extended jurisdiction for itself. The UNMIN has expressed its willingness time and again to help mediate in other internal conflicts in the country besides security sector reform. In fact, UNMIN, like Nepal’s ruling political parties, has become the object of criticism in the country for having failed to match the expectations of the people for peace and normal service delivery besides ensuring timely elections to the constituent assembly way back in June 2007.

Shiv Shankar Mukherjee, India’s ambassador to Nepal, said in a recent television interview here that not conducting the CA poll, twice deferred in the past, may raise questions of the legitimacy of the government that has been in power for more than 21 months without facing the electorate. The international community was hoping and helping Nepal in its transition to democracy and peace, and UNMIN is part of that. But there are clear indications that the people’s faith in the ability and intentions of the ruling seven-party alliance that includes the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M), is on the decline.

Between January 27 and February 3, there have been explosions, mainly targeting the election meetings of the ruling alliance, at least in 43 places, that have left more than 60 people wounded. Heavy security cover provided by the security agencies at an unprecedented scale has not been able to check these activities. Questions are being raised — will other parties get the same kind of protection by the state?

Home Minister K.P. Sitaula has gone public with his dissatisfaction with the law and order situation. Although some prominent ministers and leaders of the ruling alliance have suggested that the Nepal army should also be deployed for electioneering, it cannot happen without a consensus as the Maoists still consider it as the King’s army. In fact, some of the senior Maoist leaders have suggested that they will accept such an idea only if their ‘People’s Liberation Army’ is deployed along with the NA to provide security to the politicians — something that will not be acceptable to most political parties. Already, a powerful section of Congress parliamentarians have begun a nationwide campaign that by aligning with the Communists, mainly the Maoists, the Nepali Congress led by G.P. Koirala, has inflicted irreparable damage to democracy in Nepal.

Nepal’s present regime has more or less lost the faith of the people. But it still has the support of the international community which has condoned several undemocratic steps of the present government. Now Mukherjee’s warning, that the government’s failure to hold the polls in April may raise the legitimacy question, is a clear indication that the international community will be forced to review its unqualified support.

A recent opinion poll based on a sample drawn from five development regions, and three geographical regions across the country showed that a majority of the respondents did not believe that an election will take place. More than 59 per cent felt Nepal should be a ‘Hindu country’, as it was before it was declared a ‘secular state’ 22 months ago. More than 49 per cent of the respondents said monarchy should be retained in some form in Nepal. Only little more than three per cent said they had faith in the present government and the interim parliament.

The growing unpopularity of the current regime is gradually turning people against them. Given their lust for power, and a record of having put off election twice, uncertain not only prevails, but grows by the day.

ghimire.yubaraj@gmail.com

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