Uncertainty theme in Davos icy chill, India story is the warmth

From the Middle East, including Iran and Israel, are present substantial teams, to contest ideas on shifting political realignments, including the post-Annapolis Palestine-Israel situation, Iran’s ambitions and the Gulf oil states’ economic opportunities.

India is there as a story, too, this WEF, and the Indian delegation reckons that not only is it larger in size than other BRIC groups, it may even be bringing more persons from the country than most G8 members. The India and China stories, however, are sparkle-coated with optimism. Some of the sessions participants may choose to attend, most of them bound by Chatham House Rules: “Innovative India” and “India’s International Agenda”, with Finance Minister P. Chidambaram and Commerce Minister Kamal Nath participating in many discussions.

Says CII President Sunil Mittal: “CII’s projection for GDP growth for 2007-8 is 9.2 per cent. We feel this quite achievable, even in the light of developments in the US and other parts of the world, where signs of slowdown are apparent. India’s growth is primarily investment-driven and the current fundamentals of the Indian economy suggest that investments should be as per expectations.”

In Davos, India is a story nobody wants to miss out on, the way some of them did China. Amazingly, on the drive up from Klosters, Davos’s twin ski resort, flaming pink “Incredible

India” signages were still up, from the India Everywhere campaign two years ago.

But earlier this month, the WEF set the mood when it released its report, Global Risks 2008. It warned of the “highest levels of political and economic uncertainty for a decade”.

It feared that the present credit crisis in the US would kick in a recession in that country the next 12 months. Two more issues of concern noted in the report are supply-chain vulnerability that could accrue from over-optimisation of supply chains and availability of energy resources.

It also warns that food security will become “an increasingly complex political and economic problem over the next few years”. Population growth, changes in consumption patterns, diversion of crops to biofuels and climate change could make food security a particularly acute problem.

The WEF, besides being the primary showpiece of the cluster effect, thrives on what are called “Davos moments”, those casual brushes with famous people, inevitably regulars like Bill Gates and Bono. For this week, this Alpine village isolates itself from protesters who may trail the world’s rich and famous, all in the able oversight of the famously unflappable Swiss security men.

In this freedom of movement and the comfort of kindred souls made by this isolation, every participant — and there are over 2,500 of them this year — seeks his or her favourite brush with celebrity. (Though in this land of direct democracy, Davos’s official website cheerfully proclaims that no one’s right to visit will be violated.)

The absence of protocol and the gentleman’s agreement not to break confidentiality has led to more than the big business deal.

By the WEF mythology, much of it substantial, it was here that German reunification was tied up, Shimon Peres and Yasser Arafat struck critical understanding in the mid-nineties, and Nelson Mandela and F.W. de Klerk sewed up smooth transfer of power for post-apartheid South Africa.

But in past years, the thunder began to be stolen by the film and rock stars. Now, only the conscientious celebrity is invited, so Bono will talk to Al Gore on how to combine solutions to extreme poverty and the climate crisis.And everyone will be watching the market ticker.