Untouchability is history

For years the Left parties fought family rule because it perpetuated feudalism and concentrated power. But today Harkishen Singh Surjeet is showing a willingness to do business even with the dynasty.

No party is untouchable today. A section of the Congress in UP joined handswith the BJP and the party almost broke up at the Centre before the elections. The BJP is saying quite openly that there was no way to power except to give ministries to the new entrants even if they had a criminal record. The party will take a long time, perhaps forever, to live down what it did in UP, and in the bargain lost its USP of being different.

This trend may be dismissed as a coalition hazard but coalitions the world over have been based on some programmatic understanding. In India this is not the case, except in some states like West Bengal and Kerala. The BJP forged an alliance with a dozen parties but shied away from a common minimum programme before the polls. In 1996 also, the United Front came into existence after the elections to keep the BJP at bay. All this goes to show that party programmes do not matter any more. For the same reason the manifestoes are converging on substantive issues.

As in 1996, so also this time the post-poll scenario may turn out to be quite different from thepre-election tie-ups. The situation is getting polarised between the two major parties and whoever crosses the 230 mark (with allies) will go poaching in the enemy camp. The allies, or potential allies, on both sides are keeping their options open. It is becoming clear that the biggest casualty will be the United Front.

The Samata Party, a halfway house between the BJP and "others", has already distanced itself from the BJP on core issues, partly to try and win the Muslim vote in the Kurmi belt but also to keep its options open. The likes of Nitish Kumar have always felt uncomfortable with even a pale shade of saffron. Sharad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan already have one foot in the party.

The Haryana Vikas Party may be with the BJP today but Bansi Lal, a one-time Indira lieutenant, could align with Sonia Gandhi in the future. The channels between the two are open. This is not so easy for the Akalis whose fight on the ground is with the Congress. The choice will be the acutest for Chandrababu Naidu, who hademerged as the kingmaker in the UF in the last 18 months, and for Mulayam Singh Yadav, who sees himself as a prime ministerial possibility.

There is no way that Naidu can back a Congress-led government without cutting at his own roots in the state. Supporting the BJP will be equally difficult, given his alliance with the Left parties. He has been conscious of Muslim sensibilities and it is this which prevented regional parties from lending a helping hand to the BJP in May 1996.

For Mulayam too it will be a devil-and-deep-sea dilemma. Supporting the Congress would mean the revival of the party in UP and the collapse of the Muslim-Yadav plank of Mulayam’s politics. The Muslims are already beginning to take a fresh look at the Congress. The BJP, if it comes to power, will have him on the run.

In Tamil Nadu the alliances are even more exchangeable. The TMC is expected to return to the Congress though G.K. Moopanar has denied this and Sonia Gandhi has criticised the DMK-TMC alliance without naming theparties. This may be a ploy to increase the acceptability of Moopanar in the UF as a prime ministerial candidate of a Congress-UF combine. Last time, he was acceptable to the Congress but not to the UF because of his proximity to 10, Janpath. Though it is widely believed that Manmohan Singh will be Sonia Gandhi’s choice for Prime Minister in the event of a non-BJP coalition, Moopanar enjoys her confidence more. He is also likely to vacate the hot seat as and when required. After all, Election 1998 is only the semi-final and another election is likely by 1999-end, when Sonia may herself make a bid for the top job.

Jayalalitha too is showing flexibility. She did not attend the BJP rally in Delhi. The BJP on its part has all along maintained contact with the DMK. Neither Advani nor Vajpayee attacked the party at their meeting in Chennai, much to the annoyance of Jayalalitha.

The Congress too has not really foreclosed its options on the DMK. Though dubbed the villain of the piece, Sonia has not been ashard on the DMK as was expected. For the DMK too, an alliance with the Congress will wash off all its sins relating to Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination.

There is nothing to stop groups like the Trinamool Congress or the Loktantrik Congress, allies of the BJP today, from returning to the Congress fold. Everything will ultimately hinge on numbers. Ideology may be dead, but long live electoral arithmetic.