UP shadow on presidential polls: Left, non-UPA parties could upset Cong plans

In fact, the configuration in Parliament and state assemblies are such that neither the UPA nor the NDA can push its choice for president without the support of parties outside the two combinations.

And the two “non-aligned” parties that account for the highest number of parliamentary seats are the CPI(M) and Samajwadi Party. With 44 members in the Lok Sabha and 14 in the Rajya Sabha, the CPI(M) alone accounts for 58 MPs. The SP is a close runner-up with 54 MPs (LS — 38, RS —16).

If the Congress is keen to have its own man as president, it will have to do a lot of groundwork to get the support of the Left and other non-UPA constituents.

But with the Congress leadership bent on imposing President’s rule in UP, the chances of SP’s support — bleak to begin with — is getting even more remote. The presidential elections was not part of the formal agenda at the just-concluded meeting of the CPI(M) politburo, but the party leadership is “seized of the issue” and will discuss it once the assembly election results are out at the end of this month, well placed sources indicated today.

Unlike the Samajwadi Party, the CPI(M) is not implacably opposed to a Congress candidate. The Left has supported Congressmen for the top post before — most famously when it backed Indira Gandhi’s candidate V V Giri in 1969 and more recently Shankar Dayal Sharma.

But this time round, a lot will depend on “who the Congress candidate is and whether he will be acceptable to other secular parties as well,” a senior CPI(M) leader said. It is for the Congress to take the initiative and reach out to other parties if they want to a consensus “secular” candidate to replace A P J Abdul Kalam, the party feels. The Left and particularly the CPI(M) could play a role in bringing about such a consensus. But the increasing strains between the Congress and Left — which might get heightened if the Centre dismisses the Mulayam government before a floor test — could hamper such a possibility. Under the circumstances, the move for a Third Front candidate is likely to gain ground. While Amitabh Bachchan may be too much of a lightweight and will certainly not get the support of the Congress, Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee could emerge as a more credible option.

For the moment, the CPI(M) has no plans to push its own candidate for the post, sources said. But the party has backed Leftists in the presidential race before including Justice Krishna Iyer, Tridib Chaudhuri and Lakshmi Sehgal. In all those cases, however, the nominees were “token” in nature and did not stand any serious chance of victory.

If the CPI(M) were to formally push for Chatterjee, other Third front constituents, the Congress and even some constituents of the NDA could back him, sources said. But if the CPI(M) desists from taking an activist role, some other ‘secular” candidate could emerge over the next couple of months.

If Chatterjee’s biggest drawback is the antipathy he evokes in the ranks of the BJP, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat’s plus point is his affable personality.

However, despite his personal good equations with Left MPs in the Rajya Sabha, there “is simply no way that the Left can back a BJP man for the president’s post,” a Left leader said. For the same reason, supporting a second term for President Kalam — whom they opposed five years ago — is also out of the

question. The Congress leadership has not had even preliminary discussions on the presidential polls but that hasn’t stopped the list of hopefuls from lengthening.

One reason is that all senior Congressmen know that they can never hope to be Prime Minister. Becoming president, especially with the enhancement of presidential powers and prestige in the coalition era, is the next best thing.

That is why the names of a host of “veterans” — N D Tiwari, Karan Singh, S M Krishna, Sushil Kumar Shinde and even Pranab Mukherjee — are doing the rounds. But unless the Congress manages to win new friends and influence recalcitrant allies, the walk up Raisina Hill is going to be rough ride — and Uttar Pradesh has made it rougher still.