That the UPA Government's penultimate Budget would have a pro-poor tilt is obvious. But what is obscure is that the same Government is significantly behind schedule on important poverty-alleviation programmes. In fact, it is yet to identify those below the poverty line who can be the rightful beneficiaries of targeted schemes such as those carried out by the Rural Development Ministry (MoRD). Even two years after it was appointed by the Planning Commission, an expert group headed by National Statistical Commission chairman Suresh Tendulkar is yet to submit its report on the criteria to be adopted to determine those below the poverty line. At the National Development Council meeting in December, many Chief Ministers had raised the issue of poverty estimation and were assured that the group's report was expected “shortly”. But a member of the group told The Indian Express that they would need at least another six months before finalising their views.Meanwhile, the survey to identify people below poverty line, normally conducted by the MoRD in the first year of every Plan period, may only begin in 2009, the 11th Plan’s third year. In the last three Plans, different criteria have been used to identify the poor — while income was used as the basis in 1992, rate of consumption was used in 1997. The 10th Plan used a door-to-door census with a 13-point questionnaire that graded households on a scale. For instance, if the daughter of a household went to school, it was considered a sign of “not being poor”.“The approach used in the survey for the 10th Plan had been questioned in the Supreme Court and only states like Gujarat and Kerala implemented variations of it. To avoid a similar problem, an expert group was to be set up by the MoRD and the Planning Commission to advise on the methodology to be adopted for the survey,” a senior Government officer told The Indian Express. But the expert panel still hasn't been appointed, so the survey can only begin sometime next year. While the ratio of poor in the country has almost halved from 54.8 per cent of the population in 1973 to 27.5 per cent in 2004, the total number of poor people hasn't actually changed much. Moreover, the current poverty line — Rs 356 monthly per capita expenditure for rural areas and Rs 458 for urban areas (2004-05) — is said to be much too low and states like Andhra Pradesh have argued that it is hiding poverty incidence.The current line is based on a 1973 consumption basket that assumed 2400 calories and 2100 calories as the essential intake for an individual in rural and urban areas, respectively. The last time the issue was examined — in 1993 — the Lakdawala Committee had said a national poverty line was not sensible due to the huge price variations across India.
