US begins spadework for Clinton visit

He is also expected to hold talks across the political spectrum and with the military establishment. In addition, he will visit Kashmir for an on-the-spot feedback on the situation in the State.

Although Krepon is reticent about the nature of his visit, diplomatic sources say that he is just the first of such non-official visitors to the subcontinent as part of the buildup for the Clinton visit. Over the next few weeks, several other experts from non-governmental organisations such as BobOakely’s National Defence University and Steven Cohen’s Brookings Institute are expected to pass through New Delhi to prepare the ground for a US presidential trip to the region after 20 years. They will precede the official delegations which will come after the initial sounding out process is over.

With elections having entered the final lap, Washington obviously feels it is time to get down to business with India and Pakistan. There is a sense of urgency as the time-frame being considered for the Clinton visit is early next year, depending on the political climate in both India and Pakistan.

According to Krepon, Clinton will definitely come, “whoever is here to greet him”. But clearly, several loose ends have to be tied up, particularly on the sensitive Kashmir and nuclear issues, before an official announcement is made.

While Krepon was hesitant to offer solutions for fear of being accused of “interfering”, he emphasised that it was in India’s national security interests to “reconsider basicassumptions (on Kashmir) after the nuclear tests and Kargil”.

“India’s Kashmir policy has been predicated on the passage of time theory and limited to counter-insurgency operations. The question that needs to be asked is whether or not this is working in India’s favour because as time passes, Pakistan is becoming a weaker state. And unless there is a turnaround in Pakistan’s fortunes, the consequences for India are grave as it could be dealing with Kashmir-like difficulties on several other fronts,” he stated.

While careful not to sound like a “Big Brother”, Krepon indicated that what was needed was a more pro-active and creative approach by India if it wanted to protect its security interests.

He felt that the draft nuclear doctrine released by the Vajpayee Government on the eve of elections would “badly complicate” India’s security concerns because it would be negatively interpreted by India’s neighbours.

“The draft talks of no-first use but also endorses rapid punitive responses. The twonotions are incompatible, according to me. What matters in nuclear arrangements is capability, not declaratory intent. Both Pakistan and China will look at the doctrine in terms of the requirements India sets for its nuclear forces,” he pointed out. He added that even if the doctrine was not implemented or only partially implemented, it would have a negative fallout in the region.

The immediate priority, he stressed, was for India and Pakistan to agree on stabilisation measures for their nuclear capabilities. “Both must get beyond the rhetoric by coming up with substantive and verifiable measures. The old style of rhetorical diplomacy is completely insufficient now that both have nuclear capabilities,” he said.

He conceded that there were no easy answers to the problem, given domestic compulsions on both sides and the contradictory noises coming from Pakistan. “As far as Washington is concerned, it would like to see how the US can be helpful without being interfering,” he declared.