US poll — Most members of India caucus may be re-elected

Also up for grabs are governorships to eleven states. Here again Republicans hold a 30-18 majority (with two governors from other parties) over Democrats.

By far the most watched race in the Senate is the one that pits the high-profile First Lady Hillary Clinton against the little-known Congessman Rick Lazio in New York State. Latest polls show that Mrs Clinton is ahead by about 4 points and will likely win the seat, despite the perilous position she has put herself in by trying to appeal to both Jewish and Islamic constituencies in what is arguably the world’s most cosmopolitan city.

If she wins, Mrs Clinton will be the first First Lady ever to make the transition from the White House to the Hill.

There is another arresting Senate contest involving a woman. In Missouri, opinion polls show the late Mel Carnahan, governor of the state who died in a plane crash on October 16 after putting his name on the ballot leading against the Republican incumbent Sen. John Ashcroft. Unlike in India, elections are notcountermanded when a candidate dies, and the governor of the state can nominate a person to take the place of the victorious dead. In this case, Jean Carnahan, the governor’s widow has stepped up to say she will be happy to serve her late husband’s term if he is elected posthumously.

Equally intriguing is the Senate race in Connecticut where the Democratic candidate is the sitting Senator who is also the vice-presidential candidate, Joseph Lieberman. Among the many delicious twists Congressional and constitutional experts are looking at is what happens if Lieberman wins both races and the Senate contest is tied 50-50 (in which case the vice-president has a tiebreaking vote to decide which party sets the agenda, rules etc).

The United States’ scattered Indian-American community is fairly marginal to the Senate races except perhaps in New York, where the majority seem to favor MrsClinton. This is despite the Indian bush telegraph (or its modern version, mass e-mail from lobby groups) hinting that Rick Lazio may be more favourably inclined towards India.

Indians-Americans in the Florida region are also divided between Democrat Bill Nelson, the state insurance commissioner, and Republican Congressman Bill McCollum who is aiming for the Senate seat. McCollum’s hardball tactics during the impeachment crisis (he was one of the Republican “managersâ€) was panned by the liberal media, but he has also been a tireless crusader against international terrorism.

Typically, US lawmakers have a lower turnover than their Indian counterparts – in other words, they are re-elected most often and seldomrejected by the electorate. For instance, 98 per cent of the 435 member House was re-elected in the last election in 1998. According to Congressional Quarterly magazine, only 18 House seats have “no clear favourites†in this election.

Indian lobbyists expect most of the 120-members of the India Caucus to be returned to the House. Gary Ackerman (D-NY), the outgoing chairman of the caucus, Jim McDermott (D-WA), who will quite likely be the next chairman, are both favoured to retain their seats. So also other prominent voices in the caucussuch as Frank Pallone (NY), Sherrod Brown (Ohio) and Sam Gedjenson (Conn).

Congressional races mostly center around local issues, although there are occasional high stakes contests. One such contest involves a battle to unseatRepublican Congressman James Rogan (R) in California’s 27th District. Rogan was the lead manager in last year’s impeachment trial, and President Clinton andhis supporters have made it a personal crusade to have him ousted.

Undaunted, Rogan is campaigning on such esoteric local issues as his sponsorship of a congressional resolution to define a death march in the crumbling Ottoman Empire 85 years ago as a genocide. Target: the district’s large Armenian voters.

Contenders for the House and Senate seats have raised close to a billion dollars for campaigning, making this arguably the most expensive election in thehistory of mankind.