In his meetings with officials in the capital, US Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage consistently used adjectives like ‘‘historic’’ and ‘‘momentous’’ to describe Prime Minister Vajpayee’s peace initiative beginning with his Srinagar speech. At about the same time, National Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra was picking up a rich crop of compliments in Washington from US President Bush and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. In Moscow, our external affairs minister likewise heard wonderful things about the prime minister’s initiative. Indeed, in Britain, Europe, South East Asia, South Asia and across the border in Pakistan, the initiative has aroused expectations. Obviously, the prime minister has been scripting the initiative in his own mind with great care.When Richard Armitage sought dates in New Delhi, the prime minister’s office took care that the visit was postponed until after the Lok Sabha session. By which time the prime minister had made his famous speech, germinating in his mind since the earlier stage of the Iraq war, but its lyrical tone and tenor determined by the mood he saw in Kashmir.This obviated the need for Armitage to turn up in New Delhi with a ‘‘message’’ or a ‘‘suggestion’’ from Islamabad. A much bigger suggestion, on an architectural scale, had already been sent out by Vajpayee. Armitage could only stand up and applaud the initiative and spend his time more usefully refining ideas on bilateral relations, a theme Brajesh Mishra had been discussing in depth at the White House. Discussions in Washington on transfer of high technology, nuclear energy, peaceful uses of space were all very impressive. But within six months, both President Bush and Prime Minister Vajpayee will have their eyes on their respective elections. Contexts could change. It appears President Bush immediately requested his national security adviser to have position papers ready on a caliberated upgradation of Indo-US relations before political seasons change.The prime minister has spelt out his vision keeping in mind the practical, political framework within which he has to operate. Unlike in Agra in July, 2001, Vajpayee has the confidence gifted to him by the successful elections in Kashmir which have won admiration universally. Of course, further refinements will be underway once the peace process picks up somewhat.One reason why Agra failed was that Musharraf flinched from banishing cross border terrorism from the Indo-Pak equation. After Agra, the world was shaken by a series of events which tended to divide the world into Muslim non-Muslim categories — attack on the World Trade Centre, December 13 attack on Indian Parliament, Gujarat pogrom, Indian armies on the Pakistan border.Abysmal Hindu-Muslim and Indo-Pak relations in the context of a rapid expansion of the war against terrorism looking increasingly like an assault on the Muslim world — all of this made for a hopelessly gloomy mix on the subcontinent. But Vajpayee has seized upon the moment just when the tide was turning. Unlike 9/11, the war on Iraq has harmonised relations across religious and ideological lines. The biggest demonstrations have been in Europe and the biggest catastrophe has been visited upon the Muslims of Saudi Arabia by the Muslims of Saudi Arabia. Likewise in Karachi.Public opinion in India will not allow Vajpayee to resile from the stated position on cross border terrorism. But even on this issue he is introducing some room for manoevre. On the one hand is the policy of ‘‘no talks’’ unless cross border terrorism ends, on the other is the enunciation of a sensible principle that talks will be meaningless while terrorist outfits based in Pakistan continue to bleed India. What the prime minister is looking for is ‘‘sincerity’’ on the other side that terrorist outfits are being reined in. It is nobody’s case that every loose cannon in Kashmir, on both sides, can be instantly controlled.In brief Vajpayee is sending a message externally to Pakistan and another one internally. The external message is that the world has changed beyond recognition after Iraq. Let us sort out our differences bilaterally rather than leave room for unpredictable forces to intervene in our mess in ways beyond our control. The internal message is equally simple. There are two platforms with which the BJP can go into the next elections: mocking Muslims as ‘‘Mian Musharraf’’ as was done in Gujarat or on a moderate platform which entails an occupation of the middle ground in Indian politics. Not only is the latter the prime minister’s preferred platform but, by his reckoning, the winning one.He has, of course, taken care of his right flank too: witness his moves on banning cow slaughter and a controversial invitation to Ariel Sharon. All this indicates a seriousness of purpose because he has taken care of the political turf on which he must operate.
