Victim of rhetoric

Anyone could have predicted that the demand for a Kashmiri Wazir-e-Azam would develop a momentum of its own as indeed it has with the pass...

Anyone could have predicted that the demand for a Kashmiri Wazir-e-Azam would develop a momentum of its own as indeed it has with the passage of a resolution favouring pre-1953-style autonomy in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. It was clear even before his private meeting last week with the Prime Minister that Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah wanted to proceed cautiously on this front. He would have preferred examination of the recommendations of the State Autonomy Committee by a committee of ministers and a national debate before a vote was taken in the House.

Not surprisingly his wishes were overridden by his partymen’s fears of a further decline in the popularity of the National Conference if the government backed away from the autonomy demand at this late stage. In the mountains a small stone dislodged unthinkingly can set in motion an avalanche. That is the prospect Abdullah must contemplate now. There is strong reason to believe his own purpose in taking the issue to the Assembly at this time was limited to trying to revive his party’s fortunes. But he ought to have known what some of the consequences would be.

One of them is a confrontation with the Centre. Standing up to the Union government from time to time does the reputation of all regional politicians good. Sheikh Abdullah, Farooq Abdullah’s father, was a past master at raising the temperature and then restoring peace. His quarrels with the Centre were a perennial feature of Centre-State relations during his time and helped sustain his image as the lion that roared. If other things were equal the son would undoubtedly benefit from increased tensions with the Vajpayee government. But other things are not equal.

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The son lacks his father’s political skill and charisma, the National Conference is part of the ruling coalition at the Centre and a third generation Abdullah is a Union minister. These factors suggest it will be tough to control the temperature knobs in Srinagar and New Delhi.

What makes it a dangerous game is that Abdullah has put himself in a position where he must perforce confront the Centre or lose more ground in the state. Popular aspirations have been raised. Blaming the Centre for the absence of a Wazir-e-Azam and a Sadr-e-Riyasat and the absence of those eminences for administrative shortcomings will not delude the people for very long. There are other causes of discontent too.

The current protest strike against human rights violations called by the Dukhtaran-e-Millat and supported by some non-political organisations is a foretaste of what the government could face if it fails to satisfy aspirations. The Vajpayee government should study the consequences carefully before responding to the situation in Srinagar which is full of contradictions. If the autonomy demand is opposed, it may help improve Abdullah’s prospects at the next elections but at the cost of stoking more popular discontent with the Union. If it appears to take the demand seriously, the BJP’s own house is likely to be rocked. The Centre cannot, therefore, adopt a reactive policy. It must take the initiative into its own hands and set an agenda which involves consideration of various autonomy scenarios as well as devolution of power to local bodies.