Washington’s new-found love for India stems from its selfish motives

Appointments sought by the Washington Post or the CNN were not given and according to officials in the Indian Embassy in Washington, the Prime Minister’s programme went haywire after his meeting with US President Bill Clinton.

More than just the atmospherics, a policy of containment has given way to one of engagement’, the new buzzword in Indo-US relations.

Clinton, who is slated to come to India early next year, showed a sensitivity to Indian sensibilities when he reassured Gujral at the outset that the US had no desire to mediate between India and Pakistan.

The change in Indo-US relations may be summed up by five Cs’ — Commerce, end of cold war, Community of Indians in the US and the strides they have made, Caspian Sea gas which is being billed as the issue which will dominate the economics and politics of the first half of the next century, and China’s containment which is part of the strategic interests of the US.

When the Indian economy opened up in 1991, the US interests were fuelled by the supposed size of the middle class which had been wildly projected as being 200 to 300-million strong.

But the downturn in the economy during the last year, with supply overtaking demand for mid-size cars, TV sets and other consumer durables, the mythical middle class seems to have dissolved into thin air. With infrastructural bottlenecks added to the problems, American business interest has declined. When the US investors talked about Asia it was about the Asian Tigers, China and Japan, even though financial company Morgan Stanley has categorised India as among the three emerging markets in the world.

There is a growing recognition that liberalisation is here to stay in India no matter which party comes to power and that with a free Press and a judiciary in a functioning democracy, it is easier to influence policy and put pressure on the Government in India than say in China or other dictatorships.

However, a more realistic assessment is being made of India of late, about the size of its market, and the way things should be done which may not be a replica of the way South-East Asia went about it.

The opening up of the economy came more or less at the same time as the end of the cold war in 1992. The disintegration of the Soviet Union has reduced the US obsession with containing communism and given a fresh impetus to the relations between the two countries which have been troubled for four decades.

The Indians in America today are the wealthiest ethnic immigrant group and are asserting in a quiet way. President Clinton recognised their leadership of the information industry when he remarked to Gujral that they owned half the US Silicon Valley! He made this quip when Chidambaram described Bangalore as India’s Silicon Valley.

The 90-strong India Caucus, the highest number ever of Legislators in the US House of Representatives who are actively prepared to take up India-related issues and the resolutions both the Houses of the US Congress on the 50th anniversary of Indian independence are all a response to the growing clout of the American Indian community, which makes up their constituency.

The most fascinating reason why the US may be having a fresh look at South Asia, and one that is as yet the least talked about openly, could be an issue related to the evacuation of gas from the Caspian Sea. The reserves beneath the Caspian are estimated to be around 200 billion barrels, worth trillions of dollars, enough to meet the energy needs of the United States for 30 years or more.

Writing about the oil rush and the entry of major players like the US, Russia and Iran and of lobbyists like Kissinger, Haig, Baker and Brzezinski, an article in the New York Times two weeks ago projected that the drama now unfolding in Central Asia around the “most concentrated mass of untapped wealth” will see the “greatest of games” being played around the Caspian in the coming decades.

The transportation of these reserves of oil and natural gas may alter existing political realities worldwide. The US oil companies will have the option of routes through China, which they may be wary of, or through Russia and Europe, or through the Caucasian region and Iran and already influential sections in Washington are suggesting a reappraisal of the US policy in Iran after the election of a comparatively more moderate President in Iran this summer.

The stabilisation of relations between India and Pakistan, and the easing of the situation in Afghanistan could open up mind boggling opportunities not just for US companies but also for these countries and some Indian experts in US universities are already working on the viability of such a scenario and some are even talking of the pipelines coming up to Kota in Rajasthan.It is no secret that the containment of China would be a policy goal of the US and that it may hope India would offset the influence of its northern neighbour.

The resurgence of Russia looks remote at this point of time, but the emergence of China from a regional power to a world power on its own or with a group of nations (Japan and nations of the Pacific rim) could become a reality in the first quarter of the next century.

With a recognition of the resilience of India’s democracy and an emphasis on the commonalty between the oldest and the largest democracy and their multi-cultural societies, India needs to act more confidently in its dealings with the US. There is a consensus on its external policy and the country’s self-interest. Therefore, the kind of acrobatics we saw on the change of dates in the Prime Minister’s itinerary to the US were totally uncalled for for a large nation which calls itself a civilisation.