A pretender’s bid for power in Russia

Charles Clover

Surviving in Russia’s upper echelons of power requires razor sharp instincts,a vast intellect and an ability to breezily project the impression that you are in on some great big joke — because in all likelihood,you are. It was with just such a practised twinkle that Russian businessman Mikhail Prokhorov,whose $18bn fortune includes control of a US basketball team,told reporters this week that he would run for president as the candidate of the middle class.

“My base is the middle class. I am the middle class champion,” he said.

Setting aside the irony of such a claim,the big question is whether Mr Prokhorov really can revitalise Russian politics — or merely lend an illusion of competition to Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency.

This is not the first time the 6ft 8in-tall,46-year-old Mr Prokhorov has been through the Kremlin’s looking glass. He was invited to lead the liberal Right Cause party in June,but was then thrown out three months later after apparently quarrelling with Vladislav Surkov,chief of domestic political operations for the Kremlin. Mr Prokhorov called Mr Surkov a “puppet master” in a press conference,and was blacklisted from television for three months.

That incident proved that Right Cause had been a Kremlin project all along,though Mr Prokhorov had repeatedly denied this. But it also proved that despite doing the Kremlin’s bidding,Mr Prokhorov was his own man. At least until now.

Some found the timing of Monday’s announcement suspicious,coming just two days after Russia’s middle class took to the streets to protest the rigging of parliamentary elections. On December 6,Mr Surkov said on radio,seemingly with a wink in Mr Prokhorov’s direction,that Russia needed a “popular liberal party”. A week later,Mr Prokhorov announced his run.

Suddenly,he was leading the news on state television,starring once again in the Kremlin’s virtual politics machine. On Thursday during his annual call-in show,Mr Putin said that Mr Prokhorov “had a right to run for the presidency”. Mr Prokhorov did not deny he was part of another Kremlin project. “Of course,the Kremlin would benefit from me running… They want to play a game of democracy,” he wrote on his Livejournal blog. “All of this is true — the authorities are trying to use us for their own very clear purposes. But we are also going to make use of the authorities.”

Mr Prokhorov certainly has the money to run a big campaign. Yet it remains more likely that Mr Putin will make use of Mr Prokhorov than the reverse. Having him in the race gives the March 4 poll a veneer of pluralism. The other candidates are to be perennial fall guys with no credibility,but Mr Prokhorov may yet soak up some middle class anger.

He may serve another purpose too: Mr Putin has always made himself more popular by sparring with the country’s oligarchs in rigged fights,like a Roman emperor entering the arena against a drugged opponent.

There is little danger for Mr Putin: in a poll by Russian agency Vtsiom,less than 1 per cent of Russians,asked who they would vote for if the election were held on Sunday,named Mr Prokhorov. Meanwhile 42 per cent said Mr Putin — though this is low enough to force a run-off vote,most likely to be against Communist party leader Gennady Zyuganov.

Mr Prokhorov is well aware that there are limits to how hard he can run against Mr Putin. Russia’s oligarchs are ever mindful that their jets,mines and banks can be taken away at any time like so many toys and Mr Prokhorov’s billions,while giving him some independence,also make him a hostage. On Thursday Mr Prokhorov made a promise to pardon Mikhail Khodorkovsky – the oligarch Mr Putin put in prison in 2003 – if he won,but there is not much likelihood of that.

Mr Prokhorov began making his fortune in the 1980s,selling pre-faded jeans. Then,with partner Vladimir Potanin,he went into banking. The pair shot into the stratosphere of oligarch wealth in 1996,when they bought for $170m a state mining company that now accounts for about 5 per cent of Russia’s output.

He was coerced into selling out by Mr Potanin in 2008,a year after he was jailed for 88 hours in France,accused of trafficking prostitutes at the luxury ski resort of Courchevel,when he flew eight women in on his private jet. Today,that decision to sell seems Einsteinian,as the stock market — and the shares he sold — lost three quarters of its value later in 2008. “Luck is an important part of business,” he joked to a CBS 60 Minutesinterviewer last year,just before buying the New Jersey Nets basketball club for $200m,less than he paid that year in Russian taxes.

Mr Prokhorov was never charged in the Courchevel affair and in March,he was awarded the Légion d’Honneur,France’s highest award. “I think they were trying to apologise,” one associate said. Mr Prokhorov has refused a number of interview requests from the FT.

His overriding characteristic is a keen competitive streak (he is an avid kick-boxer) that belies a middle class Moscow upbringing. And in macho Russia,some think the Courchevel scandal may help him. “Politicians like Berlusconi and Strauss-Kahn fall from power because the ladies complain about them. But none of the ladies have ever complained about Prokhorov,” purred TV hostess Tina Kandelaki. Asked about this constituency this week,he put on his best slow-burn smile and said: “One can’t say that I ignore women.” He also said he would resolve the question of a first lady if it “would be for the benefit of the country and victory in the elections; I am ready for this”.

Mr Prokhorov’s strategy of “using” the Kremlin is questionable,though. If he fails to mobilise a new constituency,which at this point seems unlikely,he will simply steal votes from Mr Putin – which was the problem in September. “We were ‘pulled down’ because we started ‘eating up’ the United Russia party’s votes,” Mr Prokhorov said candidly. And he could just as easily be pulled down again.

© 2011 The Financial Times Limited