All its allies stand defeated but why Cong is not smiling

In five state elections and two sets of by-elections in south and eastern India with a diverse set of rivals in each,it appears like a dispersed verdict at a quick glance.

In five state elections and two sets of by-elections in south and eastern India with a diverse set of rivals in each,it appears like a dispersed verdict at a quick glance. But there are important straws in the wind for all important political players at the Centre.

With the exception of the NCP now,these elections have marked the final defeat of all allies of UPA 1,the original political project of 2004. The RJD and Paswan went last year,and now with the Left and DMK out of power,the forces that helped Congress cement its claim to the Centre and help Sonia Gandhi end her political isolation,are now defeated.

What must annoy and perplex the Congress is that the demise of its erstwhile allies has not necessarily been its gain. The birth of new Chief Ministers and leaders it cannot always control may not give them much to smile about as they move ahead to try and secure a firmer foothold and sole claim to the anti-BJP vote in the country.

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This has been the election of the leader whether it is Mamata Banerjee,J Jayalalithaa,Tarun Gogoi or YS Jaganmohan Reddy or even V S Achuthanandan,who despite not winning has given the Congress a scare in Kerala.

Parties,manifestos and cadres fell by the wayside as politics powered by a single leader in each of their states became the fulcrum around which the campaign and,eventually,the voter revolved. All these leaders not being easy candidates to run with the party structures they were up against,the cadre-based,organised Left or the cadre-based structured DMK simply couldnt handle the tsunami.

For the Congress,going with its allies at the Centre has left them with mixed feelings. The crushing defeat of the DMK-Congress alliance is a tough one for the party. It leaves them free of DMK bullying but it also leaves them vulnerable given the still unfolding 2G legal process and the decimation of the DMK.

In West Bengal,Mamata rather than the Congress reaps the full benefit of the fall of the Left bastion. The narrow victory in Kerala and the loss of deposit in the crucial bypoll in Andhra,by a margin of over 5 lakh,gives the Congresss bête-noire Jaganmohan the stature of a mass leader and,to a large extent,the mantle of the successor of the late YSR all problematic propositions for the Congress.

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In a season of scams, with the BJPs scam-tainted Yeddyurappa still managing to win all three byelections couldnt have been very reassuring. Its only in Tarun Gogois unassailable lead and re-election that the Congress can draw comfort.

For the Left,sliding since it abruptly tried to pull down UPA 1 in July 2008,the worst scenario has unfolded. A rout worse than that in 2009 and the defeat of the Chief Minister himself has left little room for debate on the nature of the verdict. Moreover,the spectacular performance in its oldest bastion,Kerala,secured due to the performance of the old warhorse,VS,will cause more problems for the Left.

A relentless VS,never hesitant to speak his mind,and an injured Pinarayi Vijayan will call for much more bloodletting than the CPMs clumsy central leadership has been able to handle. The Left may have to do more than just introspect if it has to regain the status as a central force that could help form alliances,shape debates and punch well beyond its electoral weight.

For the BJP,too,there is cheer at the defeat of a key UPA ally (DMK),the Left and the Congresss discomfort in various states. But there is little else. At a time of such volatile political reconfiguration,the BJP has again scored a naught in Kerala and West Bengal and has been squeezed out in Assam,the AUDF led by Badruddin Ajmal emerging as the Opposition. In Tamil Nadu,too,the BJP has not been able to cash in on the rejection of the DMK and the Congress.