You dont have to wait until the results come in on May 16 to get a sense of the political clout Mayawati enjoys with whoever takes charge at the Centre. Official records obtained by The Indian Express show how the CBI has been used to either rein her in or ease the pressure.
The 2003 case registered by the CBI against the BSP chief was based on allegations of corruption in the Rs 175-crore Taj Heritage Corridor project when Mayawati was Chief Minister. The Indian Express has learnt that CBI bosses were first under tremendous pressure to give her a clean chit in their status reports to the Vajpayee government.
Since the case was being supervised by the Supreme Court and because the original case led to the registration of a second case a probe into Mayawatis alleged disproportionate Assets (DA) the twin inquiries are lingering on till date.
This despite the fact that the CBI concluded its investigations by 2004 and made out what it called a watertight case against her of unexplained assets amounting to around Rs 20 crore.
The first reprieve for Mayawati came in January 2005 shortly after her resignation as Chief Minister. Relations between the Congress and SP had soured and Mayawati and her BSP were being perceived as a potential ally.
This set the tone for the CBI. So while senior investigators were unequivocal about a case being made out against Mayawati in the Taj case,Director of Prosecution,S K Sharma,along with officers of CBIs Lucknow branch argued that the evidence was unconvincing.
At this stage,the Mayawati brief was sent by then CBI Director US Misra to Attorney General Milon Banerji for reference.
The four-page opinion,available with The Indian Express,reveals that the AG chose to curiously rely heavily upon submissions of another Law Ministry official,Deputy Legal Advisor,O P Verma to give the benefit of doubt to Mayawati.
His reasoning: It appears that the (Taj corridor) file was never sent to Mayawati and approval was given by P L Puniya (her Principal Secretary) in her name. In the absence of any other corroborating material,no offense against her is made out…
Incidentally,Puniya is the Congress candidate in this Lok Sabha election from Barabanki.
In March 2005,armed with the AGs opinion,the CBI went to the Supreme Court – exactly as it did with trial court in the Quattrocchi case last week and argued that it wanted to close the Mayawati case. The judges,however,stood firm and in an unprecedented step asked for yet another opinion,this time,from the Central Vigilance Commission. And,in a rare rebuff to the agency and the government,they specifically asked for the AGs opinion not to be given to them.
The CVC submitted a detailed 29-page report to the court in May 2005 where it reversed the CBI and the AGs assessments. The report,also with The Indian Express,was a severe indictment and concluded: Mayawati was directly involved in the commencement of the work and release of funds she was party to the conspiracy for commission of offences.
Even that didnt push the case forward. The next round of disagreements in the case took place in the CBI headquarters on the question of need for sanction to prosecute Mayawati.
Several senior officers told The Indian Express that in view of the December 6,2006 Supreme Court ruling of Justice Arijit Pasayat (that no sanction for prosecuting serving or former politicians was required for corruption cases),their opinion was and remains that Mayawati could be charge sheeted directly.
But then CBI Director Vijay Shankar decided otherwise. So Chief Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav routed the sanction file to Governor T V Rajeswar,on the last day of polling for the Uttar Pradesh Assembly.
The Governor refused permission to prosecute Mayawati ostensibly on the basis of the advice of Additional Solicitor General Gopal Subramaniam,who could hardly be expected to challenge the opinion given by the Attorney General.
Politically,the timing for letting Mayawati off the hook in June 2007 was perfect since the Congress had been assured of her support in the upcoming Presidential election.
But Mayawati continued to fight to rid herself of the stigma of the DA case,which had been delinked from the Taj case by the Supreme Court in October 2004 itself.
Although the CBI,had,in October 2006 informed the court that its probe in the assets case was complete,the chargesheet is nowhere in sight.
Mayawatis legal advisors,in the meantime,have tried hard to stall the CBIs progress in the case. Her relatives,for one,filed applications with the Settlement Commission hoping to get immunity from prosecution and be let off by just paying a penalty.
Then she filed one petition after another with the Government and the CBI and finally challenged the very existence of the DA case in the Supreme Court. And during a recent hearing,CBIs counsel have been told by the court that they cant proceed with the charge sheet without consulting the bench.
While frequent adjournments witnessed in the DA case suit Mayawati,not so a sudden twist in the Taj case.
On March 24,the Allahabad High Court admitted a PIL filed by one Katil Ahmed,challenging the refusal of sanction for prosecution. It will be heard on May 11.
The CBI is again being forced to defend its position in the Allahabad High Court. And guess whom it has picked as its counsel? None other than Gopal Subramaniam,who had given an opinion that there was no case against Mayawati.
Clearly,the next move in the case depends on what happens on May 16 and how do the numbers add up.