Arabs have never had the opportunity to choose… We are creating ourselves

But during the past 10 months,Tunisia has emerged as the unlikely poster child of the Arab Spring,the vanguard of the revolutionary wave sweeping the region.

On Sunday,less than a year after a young fruit vendor set himself on fire and sparked a revolution that transformed the power dynamics of the Arab world,Tunisians will head to the polls to elect a constituent assembly that will design a new political system,the framework for a social contract between the state and its citizens.

It will be one of the most closely watched elections in recent history. As the midnight cut-off for campaigning approached on Friday,political parties held their final rallies,while expatriates began to vote in more than 80 countries. Beji Caid Essebsi,the prime minister,urged Tunisians to vote without fear and said the polls would be fair.

Its a new phenomenon,something happening for the first time in Arab culture, said Hammadi Sammoud,a Tunisian historian and linguist. The entire Arab world since olden times has never had the opportunity to choose. Its a rite of passage from accepting things were decided for us to participating. We are creating ourselves.

The mechanics of Sundays vote are simple: electors will choose from among five dozen political parties and lists for a 218-seat assembly that will draw up a national charter,appoint a prime minister and president,and serve as a legislature for the next year.

Seats will be doled out to parties and lists based on the number of votes they receive in each of 33 districts,with 19 seats reserved for Tunisians living abroad. Hundreds of international observers from dozens of governmental and non-governmental bodies have been welcomed to the country to observe the vote,which could serve as a model for political transitions in Egypt,Libya,Syria and Yemen.

Regionally and to the wider world,its symbolically hugely important,proof that the Arab Spring is moving forward, said a western diplomat in Tunis. A successful election will torpedo that story that you cant be Arab and democratic.

Voters will choose from among parties spanning the ideological spectrum,from secularists to socialists to Islamists,who are expected to achieve a plurality,but not outright majority,of seats.

But beyond that,Tunisians will begin the arduous task of negotiating looming matters of state and society,issues for decades decided by former ruler Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali,who is exiled to Saudi Arabia after he fled on January 14.

Now Tunisians themselves must grapple with the big questions: What will be the relationship between the state and Islam? How will the countrys resources be distributed? How will the nation orient itself towards the west and the rest of the Arab world?

More immediately,they must figure out a way to alleviate economic woes that have dragged the growth rate down to zero,pulled its bond ratings to near-junk status and left 700,000 unemployed. Many in the young generation who led the revolution have grown despondent and are making plans to leave.

Its going to be a tough few years, said the western diplomat. If democracy doesnt create jobs,its going to be a long-term problem.

The diplomat said he and his colleagues in the embassies of Tunis were optimistic about the countrys future,far more than most Tunisians. None of the worst-case scenarios envisaged after January 14 have so far come to pass.

Still,the potential consequences of failure of Tunisias experiment resulting in counter-revolution,dictatorship or chaos would be a big blow to the anti-authoritarian wave sweeping the region. And the possibility of failure isnt difficult to imagine.

Beyond Tunisias golden beaches and fertile Mediterranean coastal plain lies an impoverished and conservative hinterland resentful of the wealth of the countrys cosmopolitan seaside cities.

If this experiment succeeds,it will be a historical event to an extent rarely seen, said Hamadi Redissi,a professor of political science at Tunis university. If it fails,were finished.

2011 The Financial Times Limited