The telcos will see a 7 per cent decline in their revenues from the fixed-line businesses to Rs 14,800 crore this calendar year,as pulling down the overall growth in the consumer fixed services market to a muted 2 per cent,says a Gartner report. The consumer fixed services market includes voice service,broadband access and Internet access. In 2012,the overall revenue from this sector will touch to Rs 24,000 crore,up from Rs 23,500 crore in 2011. "Consumer fixed voice revenue is forecast decline by 7 per cent to Rs 14,800 crore this calendar year,from 2011. From 2012 through 2016,voice revenue will further decline by 25 per cent. Voice traffic continues to shift to mobile," Gartner senior research analyst Neha Gupta said. Explaining the reason for this pessimism,she said,"Consumer voice lines have been coming down and so have usage levels. Prices remain more or less stable. In the future,lower average revenue per unit levels,coupled with a low user base,will lead to decreased voice revenue." Going forward,she said consumers will continue to abandon their fixed lines,even as service providers increasingly bundle broadband and IPTV to retain their fixed line customers. However,she said the consumer fixed line services market will see growth from broadband and Internet access sectors,which will collectively grow to Rs 9,200 crore this year,while the household broadband penetration will cross 6 per cent. The broadband market continues to be dominated by DSL in the country,accounting for 87 per cent of broadband connection in 2011,report noted adding it is expected to grow 18 per cent this year. "There has been slower than expected growth of fixed broadband services,mainly due to the slow rollout of the fixed broadband infrastructure. While some operators have rolled out Ethernet cables,much of the investment focus has been on wireless services. Fixed line broadband penetration will stay in single-digit till 2016," the report said. Wireless broadband services are expected to help bridge the demand and supply gap to some extent,especially in markets that are not covered by copper telephone lines,said Gupta. On the pricing front,she said fixed broadband prices are expected to come down as service providers attempt to attract rural consumers. However,the report warned that higher usage levels will offset any fall in the Arpu,but she noted that launch of higher speed,more expensive broadband services will help push up average selling prices and Arpus. "The net effect of this will be only a slight fall in Arpus over the next five years. While broadband has taken over dial-up as the primary access technology,it will continue to be widely available outside the major metros. Dial-up accounted for almost 42 per cent of total Internet accounts in 2011," the report said. The NYSE-listed Gartner Inc is the world's leading information technology research and advisory company,delivering technology-related insights necessary for the industry to make right decisions.
