For the first time this monsoon,the weekly rainfall in the country has been 6 per cent above the average. These figures from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD),however,still do not indicate that the wider shortages in June and especially July will be covered,which means the total rainfall in the country is still 12 per cent below normal. Any deviation of more than 10 per cent makes the year technically a drought year. A technical drought is different from an acute drought like that brought on by the 22 per cent shortfall India suffered in 2009. An acute drought becomes markedly worse if weather forecasts provide no clue,but inefficient forecasting is a problem even in other years. In April this year,the IMD said it expected monsoon rains in the range of 99 per cent of the long period average. While the current situation would seem to bear out that prediction,the department had then said the probability of it coming through was just 47 per cent. The subsequent scaling down of the forecast to 96 per cent of the long period average after June saw a rain deficit of 29 per cent,which was followed by an estimate of a wet July,which again did not materialise. Now a wet September has been forecast. Clearly,India needs to urgently upgrade its weather prediction machinery and allow competition in the sector. This has become all the more necessary for short-duration horticulture,which includes fruit and vegetables. Crops like paddy have a window of 140 days,which can adapt to variations in the rains. But for farmers dependent on horticulture crops with a window of less than 60 days,such variations can be consequential,especially when they are unpredictable. Indias horticultural output has grown to over 240 million tonnes during 2010-11; the country is now the second biggest producer of fruit and vegetables after China. The governments decision on the Met department whether to allow more competition in this sector or not needs to take into account the huge impact of forecasts going awry. Of course,this is one agricultural reform no political party is queuing up to argue for.
