Two things are clear at the end of the fourth phase of polling in UP first,the ruling BSP faces the anti-incumbency factor which is fairly pervasive and,two,the Samajwadi Party is its main challenger. A third important development is the emergence of the Congress as a respectable factor in state politics after a gap of more than two decades. For the first time,none of its rivals is taking the Congress lightly,thanks to Rahul Gandhis energetic campaigning and some deft moves by the party. The election process has already covered 226 of the 403 constituencies in eastern and central Uttar Pradesh. The remaining 177 constituencies,which will be covered in the past three phases,are mostly in western UP and parts of Bundelkhand. The anti-incumbency factor against the BSP has much to do with the state governments failure to provide a corruption-free administration in its interface with the people. The voters main grievance is that they are forced to pay bribes even for getting things like income certificates,caste certificates,police verification report for the issuance of passports,birth certificates and old-age pension. Another grievance is the officer raj where the voice of the peoples representatives on issues of public interest has ceased to matter. The third major charge is that the BSP government is only taking care of Dalits,and the Prevention of Atrocities Against SC Act was being misused. The SP seems to have been the most successful in tapping this disenchantment with the BSP. Its candidates were well placed in almost all regions which went to the polls in the first four phases,despite the stigma of the lawlessness of the previous Mulayam Singh government and constant reminders by CM Mayawati,Rahul Gandhi and BJP leaders. Apparently,young Akhilesh Yadavs appeal and Mulayam Singh Yadavs constant reassurance that the SP would not repeat past mistakes have improved its acceptability beyond its traditional supporters. Also,although Muslims are no longer voting as a bloc,most of them still seem to prefer the SP. Initially,Muslims in constituencies like Tanda in Ambedkar Nagar and Mubarakpur in Azamgarh were influenced by the Congress announcement of the quota within OBC quota for backward Muslims and the special package for weavers,but they later developed hesitation in fully backing the Congress. However,the BSPs support among its core Dalit voters hasnt suffered much erosion. It is mainly because the BSP rule has given the Dalits a sense of security from dominant landed communities in rural areas and,generally,from the police.
