NDA of the affair

Perceptions shape reality: post-assembly polls,BJPs having ally trouble

A month is a long time in politics. In a few short weeks the image of the BJP as a potential winner has suffered dramatically. Correspondingly,the perception of the Congress as the frontrunner in the next general elections in April has gained ground.

In November,it was a different story. The BJP was gung-ho about its poll prospects and the Congress pessimistic. The NDAs string of assembly victories in the last few years,including Karnataka,Uttarakhand,Punjab,Himachal Pradesh,Gujarat and Bihar,boosted the BJPs stock. The party believed that the Mumbai attack further vindicated its campaign for a tough policy on terrorism,and it hoped to reap the benefits. It reckoned that the circumstances of the 2009 parliamentary poll would be particularly favourable: following the delimitation of constituencies there is an increase in urban seats,which the BJP believed would work in its favour. Another surmise was that the BSP,outside Uttar Pradesh,would cut into the Congresss vote share rather than the BJPs. The assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh,Rajasthan,Delhi and Chhattisgarh were viewed confidently by the BJP as a semi-final,and one which would establish its pole position. As it turned out,the December result was not the outcome the BJP hoped for: the popular perception has changed and it looks as if the Congress has the edge and the BJP is on the back foot.

This is in spite of the fact that if the assembly results are actually seen on the basis of parliamentary seats,the BJP scored over the Congress. The BJPs victories in MP and Chhattisgarh were convincing,unlike Rajasthan where the BJP lost narrowly. Subsequently,the BJP has strengthened its position in the Karnataka assembly. In Jammu,it has performed remarkably well for an assembly election.

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Then why the perception? It may be because,while in numerical terms Delhi accounts for only seven parliamentary seats compared to MPs 29,the BJPs defeat in Delhi created the most shockwaves. It transformed the image of the BJP from a prospective winner to a blunderbuss loser. The fact that the BJP was unable to cash in on a 10-year Congress incumbency and one marked by demolitions,sealings,terrorist attacks,increasing lawlessness and rising prices is reason for that party to worry. Although the Congress vote share dipped by about eight per cent,the anti-incumbency vote did not go to the BJP. The main gainer of that vote appeared to be the BSP.

Perhaps the real wake-up call for the party is its seeming inability to attract the urban youth. This is also borne out by the results of the Delhi University Students Union (DUSU) elections over the last decade. The Congress affiliated NSUI has consistently outdone the ABVP. There appears to be a disconnect between the BJP and young urban voters,who were once at the vanguard of the partys campaigns. The BJPs ageing leadership and the lack of new ideas and a fresh perspective have hardly inspired a new generation. (Significantly two-thirds of the population today is under the age of 35.) An indication of the BJPs slipping standing is the fact that the perennial weather-cock Ajit Singh is dragging his feet on an alliance with the party in western UP. The BJP finds it has been pre-empted by the CPM in renewing old alliances with the AIADMK and the TDP. The NDA of 2009 is an emasculated version of the Vajpayee-led alliance of 2004. True,the AGP and the INLD may have returned to the fold,but Mamata Banerjee has walked out. The JD(U) and the Biju Janata Dal are uneasy with the BJPs shrill Hindutva noises and even Andhra actor Chiranjeevi is reluctant to join forces with the BJP for fear of alienating minority voters in Andhra Pradesh. Consequently,the BJP may have almost no presence in that state,as well as in Tamil Nadu,Kerala and West Bengal. In UP,with 80 parliamentary seats,the BSP and the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance seem likely to be the principal contestants and the BJP may have to settle for the crumbs.

In such straitened circumstances,how can the BJP-led NDA manage its projection of itself as a national alternative to the Congress-led UPA? Worried about the partys prospects,the RSS held a brainstorming session with L.K. Advani and other leaders this week. Reports suggest that Advani has been given carte blanche to chalk out his election strategy without interference. But this is easier said than done. The BJP president,Rajnath Singh,systematically undercuts Advani by issuing contrary statements aimed at pleasing the RSS,even as Advani strains to create the impression of an inclusive BJP. An ageing Advani,handicapped by a dog-in-the-manger party president,contrasts poorly with the Congresss trinity of mother,son and Manmohan Singh,holier than most.

So does all of the above mean that the BJP can be written off in the coming parliamentary polls? Hardly so. If a month is a long time in politics,four months can prove an eternity.

coomi.kapoor@expressindia.com